Canada Election Odds: Carney Leads Liberals Ahead of Federal Election
Although the next Canadian Federal election has yet to be officially called, the Canadian Federal Election odds markets are already taking shape. Additional markets have been surfacing too as we approach an election with an unknown date.
Several of the best sportsbooks in Canada offer odds on the 45th Canadian Federal election, including the winning party, when the election will be held, and what party will form the official opposition. You can also now get action on how many seats the Conservative party will win, and who the Prime Minister will be following the election.
Parliament is prorogued until March 24, and the Liberals just elected a new leader, Mark Carney. Read on to see if that's changed the state of the election.
🗳️45th Canadian Federal Election betting odds
This market is set for the "Sworn in Government." Odds via bet365 as of March 10, 2025.
| Party | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives (CPC) | -225 | 69.23% | $4.44 |
| Liberal Party (LPC) | +162 | 38.17% | $16.20 |
| New Democratic (NDP) | +11000 | 0.90% | $1100 |
| Bloc Quebecois | +11000 | 0.90% | $1100 |
| Green Party | +60000 | 0.17% | $6000 |
| People's Party of Canada | +100000 | 0.10% | $10000 |
Latest Canadian Federal Election odds & news
- March 10: Conservatives slip to -225, Liberals shorten to +162; NDP lose steam and move from +6000 to +11000
- March 9: Liberals elect Mark Carney as the new leader, replacing Justin Trudeau
- March 4: Conservatives move to -250; Liberals to +175; other parties remain unchanged
- Feb. 27: Ontario, Canada's most populous province, votes the PC party back into power, giving it a third mandate
- Feb. 27: Conservatives move from -450 to -300, Liberals from +275 to +225; other parties remain stagnant
- Feb. 18: Conservatives move from -600 to -450, Liberals from +350 to +275, on heels of Mark Carney's surge toward being the next Liberal leader
- Jan. 10: The Liberals announce they will name their new leader on March 9; The House of Commons is prorogued until March 24 to allow for the transition
- Jan. 6: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announces he'll resign as the leader of the Liberal Party when a replacement has been chosen
- Dec. 20: New Democratic leader Jagmeet Singh announces he would bring forth a non-confidence motion for the Liberals, a shift from previous instances in which the NDP backed the Liberals
- Dec. 16: Deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigns
- Dec. 16: Housing minister Sean Fraser announces he will not seek re-election
- Dec. 8: The Liberals survive a third non-confidence vote as the Conservatives attempt to topple the government again but do not receive NDP support
🗳️Which party is the 45th Canadian Federal Election betting odds favorite?
Conservative (CPC) (-225)
The Conservative Party of Canada remains the front-runner to form the next government at our political betting sites in Canada, but it's been losing ground over the last few weeks. The CPC is getting an implied win percentage under 70% for the first time since murmurs of an election arose.
While the CPC hasn't won a federal election since the Trudeau-led Liberals took over in 2015, it formed two minority governments (2006 and 2008) and a majority government (2011) in the not-too-distant past. But the Conservatives have been losing ground in the polls, and now a new leader has been elected for the Liberals.
While it's far from a rule, the Ontario provincial government has been largely the opposite of the federal government over the last three decades. Ontario elected PC Doug Ford to a third government on Feb. 27.
Best odds: -225 via bet365 | Implied win probability: 69.23%
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📅 What day will the 45th Canadian Federal Election be held?
With the election seemingly on the horizon, FanDuel Ontario offers the opportunity to bet on when Canadian voters will head to the polls.
Odds as of March 10, 2025.
| Date | Odds (FanDuel Ontario) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring (March-May 2025) | -390 | 79.59% | $2.56 |
| Summer (June-Sept 2025) | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Fall (Sept- Oct. 19, 2025) | +470 | 17.54% | $47 |
| Scheduled date (Oct. 20, 2025) | +850 | 10.53% | $85 |
🪑Which party will win the 2nd most seats?
The Conservative Party of Canada remains the frontrunner to win the election and that change is coming for Canadians. But what party will act as the official opposition? Sports Interaction has odds.
Odds as of March 10, 2025.
| Party | Odds (Sports Interaction) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party | -278 | 73.53% | $3.60 |
| Conservatives | +187 | 34.84% | $18.70 |
| Bloq Quebecois | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| New Democratic Party | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Green Party | +10000 | 0.99% | $1000 |
| People's Party of Canada | +10000 | 0.99% | $1000 |
🪑How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
While their odds have been shrinking in recent weeks, the Conservative Party still looks to be in the drivers seat to form the next federal government in Canada. Will they have a majority? A minority? Sports Interaction allows you to be on bands.
Odds as of March 10, 2025.
| Number of Seats | Odds (Sports Interaction) | Implied Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 150 | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
| 150-174 | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| 175-199 | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| 200-224 | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| 225-249 | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| 250 or more | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
❓Canadian general federal election FAQs
Where can I bet on the Canadian Federal election?
You can bet on the Canadian Federal Election at our best Ontario sports betting apps and our political betting sites in Canada. You'll find selections generally under "Politics" or "Novelty."
We're starting to see extra markets emerge, such as the date of the election and which party will become the official opposition.
Who is the favorite for the next Canadian federal election?
The Conservative Party of Canada is the favorite to win the next Canadian Federal Election, with odds of -225 representing an 69.23% implied win probability.
Who won the previous Canadian Federal election?
The Liberal Party were elected to a minority government in 2021 and have been in power since 2013.
When is the next Canadian Federal election?
The next Canadian Federal election will be on or before Oct. 20, 2025. A spring election is the favorite while getting -390 odds, offering a 79.59% implied probability.
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