Jannik Sinner vs. Taylor Fritz Predictions & Odds: 2024 US Open Final
An American man looks to win the US Open (or any major for that matter) for the first time since 2003 as Taylor Fritz takes on No. 1 seed Jannik Sinner.
Overnight at DraftKings, Sinner shortened from a -475 moneyline favorite to -380, but my Sinner vs. Fritz predictions still need to get creative to optimize value outside of these steep odds.
Sinner won his semifinal match impressively over Jack Draper in straight sets, as the No. 25 seed had not dropped a set prior to the semifinals. He is the first Italian man ever to reach the US Open final, and this is his second major final after winning this year’s Australian Open.
With Fritz and Jessica Pegula both reaching the final (see our US Open women's final prediction), it marks the first US Open with Americans in both the women’s and men’s final since 2002. Fritz is looking to end a five-match losing streak for American men in major finals since 2004.
This Sinner-Fritz US Open final begins Sunday at 2 p.m. ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York.
US Open final odds
(US Open odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
| Jannik Sinner | Taylor Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -380 | +285 |
| Spread | -4.5 (-125) | +4.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under | Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-120) |
Sinner vs. Fritz prediction
Jannik Sinner Over 20.5 total games won ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Sinner improved to 12-0 against Americans in majors after beating Tommy Paul in straight sets in the Round of 16. He figures to benefit from a rest advantage given that he played in the afternoon on Friday while Fritz played a much longer five-set match late into Friday night.
However, Sinner aggravated his wrist bracing a fall in his semifinal match. That injury combined with the fact that he played his match under much more brutal conditions with higher humidity during the day than at night should level the playing field for Fritz.
Sinner is the rightful heavy favorite, and he is not in danger of losing this match outright, given that he already proved capable of winning a hard-court major and has won 22 of his 24 Grand Slam matches this year.
Thus, I am making this a confident four-star play, as the only fear is Sinner winning in straight sets (I would need him to win in three straight tiebreaks to cash the Over if that happened). But Fritz has won six consecutive matches against top-20 opponents in majors, so he should win at least one set.
Lastly, there's also not likely to be a lot of breaks of serve. Fritz is especially capable of going on a serving heater, just as he did when he won 24 of his 25 service points in the second set against Frances Tiafoe.
Fewer breaks mean longer sets, and as long as Sinner wins three-plus games in a losing set, I would cash this Over with three other set victories of six games apiece.
A $10 winning wager at -120 odds via our BetMGM bonus code: 'SBRBONUS' would pay out $18.33.
US Open final best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 20.5 games (-125) | Over 20.5 games (-122) | Over 20.5 games (-120) | N/A | Over 20.5 games (-120) |
The implied probability for Sinner to win 21-plus games is as high as 55.56% given DraftKings’ -125 odds. The biggest obstacle for cashing this wager is not having Sinner win in straight sets, but DraftKings has -240 odds (carrying a 70.59% implied probability) that Fritz will win at least one set.
There's also a 44.44% chance (+125 odds) he will win at least two sets.
Another trend helping the case for the Over is that Sinner is 15-1 in his last 16 tiebreaks, so that is an avenue to pick up an extra seventh game toward his total if he finds himself in any tiebreaks with Fritz.
Fritz has also played 23 five-set matches across 33 major appearances, so the Over would almost undoubtedly cash if another Fritz match goes the distance.
Sinner vs. Fritz stats
| Jannik Sinner | Stat | Taylor Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matches won | 1 |
| 0 | Wins in straight sets | 1 |
| 2 | Sets won | 3 |
| 23 | Games won | 26 |
| 1 | Wins on hard court | 1 |
US Open final match info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 8 (2 p.m. ET)
- Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York)
- How to watch: ABC
- Favorite: Sinner (-380 via DraftKings)
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