US Open Women's Final Predictions & Odds: Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka look for their first US Open titles when they meet in the 2024 women's final Saturday afternoon.
Sabalenka has a massive experience advantage with this being her fourth Grand Slam final appearance, and that factors into my Pegula vs. Sabalenka predictions with Sabalenka being a -330 moneyline favorite by the US Open odds at DraftKings.
Sabalenka’s four Grand Slam finals appearances have all come on hard courts, and she is 2-1 in the previous three, winning the last two Australian Opens and finishing runner-up to Coco Gauff at last year’s US Open. She is the first woman to reach back-to-back US Open finals since Serena Williams in 2018-19.
By contrast, Pegula’s semifinal appearance was her first at a major in 23 chances, as she finally broke through after going 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinal matches, with at least one loss in that round at all four Majors.
US Open women's final odds
(Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
| Jessica Pegula | Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +250 | -330 |
| Spread | +4.5 (-125) | -4.5 (+100) |
| Over/Under | Over 21.5 (-105) | Under 21.5 (-120) |
Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka prediction
Pegula +4.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -124 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 55.36%
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Sabalenka is the best hard court women’s player in the world, with this being her fourth consecutive final at a hard court major. She is a worthy favorite, especially since she has won 17 of her 18 Grand Slam matches this year, and 35 of the 38 sets.
However, Pegula has won two of their four hard-court meetings, will have the overwhelming support of the American crowd, and she is not being given enough credit for an impressive run to the finals.
Though Pegula beat an unseeded Karolina Muchova to earn her spot in the final, Muchova had won six of her previous eight matches against top-10 opponents in majors. And Muchova’s ranking is solely related to her missing nine months due to a wrist injury, as she was ranked as high as eighth after last year’s run to the US Open semifinals.
Pegula showed tremendous resolve in coming back to beat an opponent who was 7-5 overall against top-10 opponents in Grand Slams, especially after she was down a set and a break and won 12 of the final 16 games.
Sabalenka is human, and wavered a bit when she had a chance to serve for the match up 5-4 in the second set, but was broken and had to grind out a win in a tiebreak. If that happens again, a player as good as Pegula, who has won 12 of her 13 sets played in this tournament, will take advantage.
US Open women’s final best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (-125) | +4.5 (-124) | N/A | +4.5 (-125) | +4.5 (-138) |
While there is no difference among our best sports betting apps in the game spread, the fact that bet365’s -138 odds carry a 57.98% implied probability that Pegula will cover the spread helps make our wager a more confident four-star play.
I was tempted to back Pegula’s +1.5 set spread at a similar price (-120) to her game spread odds, but Sabalenka has won 10 of her last 11 WTA main draw matches in straight sets.
And while Sabalenka has covered the game spread in five of her previous six matches against Pegula, she failed to cover this same number in the semifinals against Emma Navarro, and I consider Pegula to be a superior player to her fellow American.
Jessica Pegula vs. Aryna Sabalenka H2H stats
| Jessica Pegula | Stat | Aryna Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches won | 5 |
| 1 | Wins in straight sets | 5 |
| 4 | Sets won | 11 |
| 54 | Games won | 80 |
| 2 | Wins on hard court | 2 |
US Open women’s final match info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 7 (4 p.m. ET)
- Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium (New York)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Sabalenka (-330 via DraftKings)
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