Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction: Game 1 Expert Picks & WNBA Finals Odds
The WNBA Finals begin Thursday when the New York Liberty (32-8) host the Minnesota Lynx (30-10) for Game 1, which tips off from Barclays Center at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
- The Liberty are favored by as many as 6.5 points across our best sportsbooks
- The Lynx won three of four matchups in the regular season, including a 94-89 win on June 25 to claim the Commissioner's Cup
- New York has won five of six playoff games after losing in last year's WNBA Finals
Here is a look at our Lynx vs. Liberty prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals:
Lynx vs. Liberty expert picks: Game 1
WNBA picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Liberty -5.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Breanna Stewart Over 20.5 points (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 27.5 pts + reb + ast (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Lynx vs. Liberty prediction: Game 1
Liberty -5.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Look, I'll raise my hand and admit I didn't think the Lynx would reach this point. I was skeptical of this group entering the season, and I faded them against the Sun in Game 5 of the semifinal series.
They've surely earned this spot in the WNBA Finals, though, after posting the second-best record (30-10) and third-best net rating (8.0) in the regular season. They've also clearly been the second-best team in the playoffs to this point.
There's only one problem: the Liberty are the class of the WNBA this season. And they've reached a new level in this postseason after last year's runner-up finish.
Liberty in pursuit of elusive title
Even with 19 playoff appearances and five trips to the WNBA Finals, New York is the most accomplished team to never win it all.
The Liberty came agonizingly close last year before losing to the Las Vegas Aces, whom they dispatched in four games in this year's semifinals. And no team has matched their elite level of play this season.
New York outscored teams by 11.7 points per 100 possessions in the regular season - 3.6 points better than anyone else - with the best offensive rating (107) and third-best defensive rating (95.3), and it's featured the best defense in these playoffs.
With MVP contenders Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones leading a group chock-full of high-level role players, too, it's no surprise that our best sports betting apps have the Liberty priced as sizable home favorites in Game 1.
Can Lynx steal another victory?
All of that said, no team has given the Liberty more trouble than the Lynx, who won three of four matchups in the regular season - including a 94-89 win in the Commissioner's Cup back in June.
Here's the issue with that: New York clearly treated the regular season as a proving ground, even as it posted ridiculous efficiency numbers across the entire campaign.
The last meeting between these two saw Stewart post a season-high 38 points and 18 rebounds, but a slow first-quarter was too much to overcome in a Sept. 15 loss that ultimately didn't impact seeding for either side.
This game, clearly, means a whole lot more. And the fact that Stewart was able to carve up the Lynx's defense in that matchup doesn't exactly inspire confidence that Minnesota can contain her when the stakes are highest.
That's why I'm laying the points on the Liberty, who are priced as high as -6.5 at some shops while catching a favorable -5.5 line at BetMGM.
That rogue value alone is a good enough reason to back the home favorites in what should be a raucous environment in Brooklyn.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Lynx vs. Liberty player props: Game 1
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Breanna Stewart Over 20.5 points (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
I might be a sucker for star power, but how could you not be optimistic about Stewart's outlook in her return to the WNBA Finals?
The two-time Finals MVP has averaged 22.7 points in the championship round across her nine-year career, clearing this total in seven of those 10 starts in the WNBA Finals. She also scored 21 points in Game 1 of last year's final round.
Stewart has fallen short of this mark in her last three games, but she dropped 38 in her last game against the Lynx. That's one reason why the Over for this prop is dealing at -120 odds or shorter at nearly all of our best sports betting sites.
If she clears this total at -110 odds, a $10 bet would return $9.09 in profit at FanDuel.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Sabrina Ionescu Over 27.5 pts + reb + ast (-125) ⭐⭐⭐
The strength of this Minnesota defense is inside with shot-blocking center Alanna Smith and forward Napheesa Collier - the Defensive Player of the Year - roaming the paint.
I do still expect Stewart to get hers against that dynamic duo, but I'm also bullish on Ionescu to take advantage of the Lynx guards on Thursday after a fairly disastrous showing in last year's WNBA Finals against the Aces' star-studded backcourt.
She's played a bigger role for the Liberty this year, averaging 18.2 points, 6.2 assists, and 4.4 rebounds (28.8 combined) to finish sixth in MVP voting. And she's tallied a combined 31.1 PRA in six playoff starts to help New York return to this stage.
I'm not in love with these -125 odds via bet365, which are still better than FanDuel's -130 odds, but this profiles as a strong spot for Ionescu to clear this total after doing so four times in her last five games.
Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Lynx vs. Liberty Game 1 odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -6 (-110) | -6.5 (-106) | -5.5 (-115) | -6 (-110) | -6 (-110) |
| Lynx | +6 (-110) | +6.5 (-114) | +5.5 (-105) | +6 (-110) | +6 (-110) |
Lynx vs. Liberty Game 1 info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 10
- Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Liberty -6 (-110 via bet365)
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