Oscars Odds & Favorites 2025: Nominee Announcements Alter Academy Award Odds
Hollywood’s first televised awards of the night kicked off the year in violent fashion, upending key races and starting the year with more questions than answers. The 2025 Golden Globes were not short on surprises and key upsets defied the odds to warrant taking another look at the betting picture before the next stage of the award season.
The Academy nominated its shortlist of their final five selections in each category on Jan. 23. The countdown's now on for when Conan O’Brien will host the spectacular ceremony live from the Dolby Theatre on Sunday, March 2.
Unlike Oppenheimer’s nuclear sweep a year ago, this year’s slate features vastly more competitive races in every category across our best sports betting sites, with markets still butting heads on who to make the rightful favourite. It's one of my favourite times of the year – so let the 97th annual race for film’s highest honour begin!
Oscars Best Picture odds 2025
(Oscars Best Picture odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of Jan. 23)
| Film | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Brutalist | -140 | 58.33% | $7.14 |
| Emilia Perez | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
| Anora | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
| Conclave | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Wicked | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Nickel Boys | +2300 | 4.17% | $230 |
| Dune: Part Two | +2300 | 4.17% | $230 |
| A Complete Unknown | +2300 | 4.17% | $230 |
| The Substance | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
| I'm Still Here | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
2025 Oscars Best Picture favorites
The Golden Globes drew a stark contrast for our previous two frontrunners with Anora blanking across all its nominations while The Brutalist swept the night to set its frontrunner status in stone.
The latter saw its odds shorten dramatically after its Golden Globe win, but the subsequent SAG nominations in the following days revealed some potentially concerning cracks from the actor’s body of the industry. Despite the market's conviction, the absence of SAG nominations forces us to reframe this as a more open race.
The Globe’s other big winner, Emilia Perez, faces an uphill battle against its critical reception and is one of the lowest rated films contending for the illustrious Best Picture Academy Award; at just +340 on FanDuel there is not enough value to take that bet for a non-English musical.
Amidst the chaos created from these unorthodox contenders, Conclave stands out as an Oscar-friendly thriller and its Golden Globe upset over Anora for Best Screenplay shows it is a film that voters have no problem putting over the favourites.
What once appeared to be a two-horse race has now expanded to four or five contenders and with such unique, and ambitious projects in the lead, the field is open for Conclave to gain traction as a viable substitute.
Oscars Best Director odds 2025
(Oscars Best Director odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of Jan. 23)
| Director | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | -320 | 76.19% | $3.13 |
| Sean Baker (Anora) | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +850 | 10.53% | $85 |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) | +3400 | 2.86% | $340 |
2025 Oscars Best Director favorites
Our previous support for a long shot in Denis Villeneuve has been undermined by his absence from key precursor nominations, and it looks like Hollywood is not moved to reward Villeneuve’s vision just yet, especially with another installment filming later this year. His omission from the nominees list puts to bed any hopes of a long shot cash here.
Brady Corbet’s Best Director win at the Golden Globes positions him as the clear favourite, especially with his closest adversary for the award, Sean Baker, blanking at the Globes. Barring any significant shifts in the upcoming events, Corbet is one of the “safer” leaders of the turbulent 2025 Oscar races and with many of his peers singing his praises I don’t see value in going against this train.
While betting on large favorites isn’t typically advantageous, I believe the -320 line on FanDuel still has some meat on its bones.
Oscars Best Actor odds 2025
(Oscars Best Actor odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of Jan. 23)
| Actor | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | -190 | 65.52% | $5.26 |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | +240 | 29.41% | $24 |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
2025 Oscars Best Actor favorites
Adrien Brody remains dominant post-Globes and is certainly the name to beat in this category, reflected by his 70.6% implied probability.
Having already taken him at an earlier price, betting on Brody right now for a role that feels familiar offers limited value. Quickly emerging on his coattails and presenting a compelling case with his second lead performance this year is Timothée Chalamet at +240 at FanDuel.
Released just weeks ago, Chalamet’s A Complete Unknown enjoyed rave reviews and a huge overperformance at the SAG nominations, indicating the film has garnered a lot more industry enthusiasm than previously anticipated. Ironically, being the younger budding talent in a breakout year for the star, Chalamet is the benefactor of the same narrative that won Adrien Brody his 1st Academy Award as its youngest ever winner.
With such a powerful performance in the leading candidate for Best Picture, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Brody’s momentum does not slow down, but at +240, Chalamet carries some tempting value to upset.
Oscars Best Actress odds 2025
(Oscars Best Actress odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of Jan. 23)
| Actor | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | -140 | 58.33% | $7.14 |
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | +130 | 43.48% | $13 |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +2300 | 4.17% | $230 |
2025 Oscars Best Actress favorites
The biggest upset of the season so far, Demi Moore’s Golden Globe win for her role in The Substance has catapulted her to the very forefront of this race.
Considered a huge underdog with less than a 10% chance of winning just weeks ago, her compelling comeback narrative mirrors Brendan Fraser’s recent Oscar triumph, and that paired with the Golden Globe was seemingly enough evidence for the market to declare Moore the new leader. From a betting perspective, Moore’s overdue underdog story is only compelling if she’s actually the underdog, and at -140 on FanDuel I think the market is getting way too ahead of itself deeming her 10 times more likely to win than a couple weeks ago.
On the other hand, this dramatic shift has given Mikey Madison a very lucrative +130 price on FanDuelthat would not have been available had she won the Golden Globe. Her performance in Anora isn’t just acclaimed – its tied to a film that is a contender for Best Picture.
Call me stubborn, but this feels like a huge overcorrection from the sportsbooks off the back of the first televised awards, and I’m sticking with Madison. Only time will tell if Moore’s Golden Globe win was really a huge upset or the first indication of a dominating run towards Best Actress.
The pick is still Mikey Madison at +130.
2024 Oscars betting results
| Category | Oscar winner | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | Oppenheimer | -5000 |
| Best Director | Christopher Nolan | -3000 |
| Best Actor | Cillian Murphy | -1000 |
| Best Actress | Emma Stone | +190 |
| Best Supporting Actor | Robert Downey Jr. | -2400 |
| Best Supporting Actress | Da'Vine Joy Randolph | -2000 |
How to bet on the Oscars
Odds for the 2025 Oscars are available at one of our best sportsbooks, and other books will begin providing them as the year progresses. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars.
Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2025 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.
DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others.
Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.
It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!
Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 2 beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars are held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, Calif.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
A host for the 2025 ceremony has yet to be announced.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Oscars betting odds pages
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