Oscars Odds & Favorites 2025: The Brutalist, Anora Lead Crowded Best Picture Chase
With just under three months to go until its star-studded March 2nd finale, the race for the 97th Academy Awards is well and truly underway.
While it may seem premature to be locking in equity across the best sports betting apps this early, the Oscar race is a turbulent landscape that will shift dramatically following every award and nomination. The Oscars are awarded by a jury of over 10,000 members and industry professionals from all walks of life, and although seemingly impossible to determine their consensus, the Academy’s thinking becomes clearer following each precursory award.
On Jan. 23rd, The Academy will nominate its shortlist of their final five selections in each category; 40 days after that, Conan O’Brien will host the spectacular ceremony live from the Dolby Theatre.
Unlike Oppenheimer’s nuclear sweep a year ago, this year’s slate features vastly more competitive races in every category across our best sports betting sites, with markets still butting heads on who to make the rightful favourite. It's one of my favourite times of the year – so let the 97th annual race for film’s highest honour begin!
Oscars Best Picture odds 2025
(Oscars Best Picture odds courtesy FanDuel Canada as of Dec. 11)
| Film | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anora | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| The Brutalist | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Emilia Perez | +340 | 22.73% | $34 |
| Wicked | +430 | 18.87% | $43 |
| Sing Sing | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Conclave | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Dune: Part Two | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| The Nickel Boys | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| A Complete Unknown | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| A Real Pain | +2300 | 4.17% | $230 |
| All We Imagine as Light | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| The Room Next Door | +3100 | 3.13% | $310 |
| The Piano Lesson | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
| Queer | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
| Gladiator 2 | 4100 | 2.38% | $410 |
| Blitz | +4100 | 2.38% | $410 |
| SNL: 1975 | +4100 | 2.38% | $410 |
| Challengers | +4800 | 2.04% | $480 |
| September 5 | +4800 | 2.04% | $480 |
| Juror No. 2 | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Hard Truths | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| The Substance | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Nosferatu | +6000 | 1.64% | $600 |
| The Life of Chuck | +6000 | 1.64% | $600 |
| The Supremes At Earl's All-You-Can-Eat | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
| Megalopolis | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
| Maria | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
| Kneecap | +7000 | 1.41% | $700 |
| A Different Man | +7000 | 1.41% | $700 |
| The Wild Robot | +7000 | 1.41% | $700 |
| Shirley | +7500 | 1.32% | $750 |
| Bird | +7500 | 1.32% | $750 |
| Kinds of Kindness | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| We Live In Time | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Mufasa: The Lion King | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| The Outrun | +9500 | 1.04% | $950 |
| Inside Out 2 | +9500 | 1.04% | $950 |
| Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Deadpool & Wolverine | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Hit Man | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Parthenope | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| A Quiet Place: Day One | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Love Lies Bleeding | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Horizon: An American Saga | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Oh, Canada | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| The Bikeriders | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Civil War | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Joker: Folie a Deux | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Bob Marley: One Love | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Young Woman and the Sea | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| The Lord of the Rings: The War of Rohirrim | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
2025 Oscars Best Picture favorites
Front and centre of this pursuit is Brady Corbet’s Silver Lion winning period epic in The Brutalist, and neck and neck beside it is Sean Baker’s racy comedy and Palme D’Or Winner: Anora. Like the duality of the epic Barbienheimer summer of 2023, these two contenders could not be less alike, and the Academy will be incredibly strained as they attempt to navigate their preference.
Of course, that’s not to discount the possibility of The Academy opting to go with something entirely different in Sing Sing or Conclave instead, and with Anora and The Brutalist certain to split thousands of voters there could be value in a bet on an outsider.
Anora (+175)
Presenting itself as the season’s feel-good entry against the slate of emotional dramas, the Cannes-winning Anora is the quintessential Best Picture contender.
Though dealing with the complex subject matter of a sex-worker turned bride, Anora is infectiously human and Sean Baker’s blend of humor and emotion creates an uplifting narrative that bridges critical acclaim and audience appeal. Sharing the distinction of being a Palme D’or winner like previous Best Picture winners, Anora is already achieving tangible critical success that solidifies its threat in this race.
FanDuel's +175 odds give Anora a modest 36.4% chance of winning Best Picture, but I would lean toward bet365 at +200 for this pick. The Academy has not been discouraged from awarding films with mature themes in the past, and this is unquestionably good cinema from one of the industry’s budding auteurs.
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The Brutalist (+200)
Arriving perfectly in time to capitalize on the start of awards season, The Brutalist is a technical work of art that the market has positioned as the leading contender for Best Picture this year.
Having already won the Silver Lion for Best Director in its Venice debut, The Brutalist’s rapturous reception was too loud to ignore, and the film quickly shot up to the top of prediction lists. The three-hour epic is set to release next month, and its momentum almost guarantees to improve on its award total, but at just +200 there is not enough clarity to justify more than a 33% chance in winning.
With a budding rival in Anora responsible for about the same share in equity, this is a race that can go either way, and there is no longer the value on The Brutalist that was once available following its surprise debut. If you do like a play on this film, however, bet it at FanDuel; it's all the way down to +137 at bet365.
Sing Sing (+600)
A true story and a moving testament to the concept of prison reformation, the biggest obstacle in the path of Sing Sing may end up being its own distributor.
Indie film distributor A24 acquired Sing Sing in September of 2023, opting to hold onto the film before a series of limited releases almost a year later. Sing Sing opened to rave reviews, and it seemed A24 had a hit on their hands before any film festivals had even kicked off.
Quickly evaporating that hype was A24’s huge decision to immediately acquire Venice’s Silver Lion Winner: The Brutalist. With the latter receiving even louder praise than Sing Sing, the studio may be tempted to play their cards very differently than previously anticipated, reprioritizing their campaigning efforts.
If Sing Sing can secure recognition off the backs of their remarkable, previously incarcerated ensemble playing themselves, it could build the momentum necessary to make a significant run for Best Picture glory. At +600 (14% implied probability), this remains one to keep an eye on.
My Pick
My pick: If this really is a two-horse race, my play is to pick the side I feel is undervalued, and at +200, bet on Anora to charm The Academy into becoming the 97th Annual Best Picture.
Oscars Best Director odds 2025
(Oscars Best Director odds courtesy bet365 as of Dec. 11)
| Director (Film) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) | +162 | 38.17% | $16 |
| Sean Baker (Anora) | +187 | 34.84% | $19 |
| Ridley Scott (Gladiator II) | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Steve McQueen (Blitz) | +700 | 12.50% | $70 |
| Edward Berger (Conclave) | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Pedro Almodovar (The Room Next Door) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Walter Salles (I'm Still Here) | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Alex Garland (Civil War) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Luca Guadagnino (Queer) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Marielle Heller (Nightbitch) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie a Deux) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Jason Reitman (Saturday Night) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Mike Leigh (Hard Truths) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Luca Guadagnino (Challengers) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Erica Tremblay (Fancy Dance) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Joachim Ronning (Young Woman and the Sea) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
2025 Oscars Best Director favorites
Brady Corbet (+162)
Emerging as a huge contender in nearly every category it has been nominated, The Brutalist has become one of the standouts this award season, and the credit for its rise goes to Brady Corbet.
The visionary started his career as a young actor before moving behind the camera to create rich, cinematic experiences. At just 36 years old, Corbet is one of the youngest names contending and his body of work is much smaller compared to the esteemed names he is up against.
While artistic, his style has not yet been battle tested against the Academy, and I don’t see the value in betting the relatively new face for such a prestigious award at such a short price. After all, even Christopher Nolan only won his first Best Director honour last year, and until we get a clearer sense of how his industry peers view Corbet, it’s best to wait for the precursor awards to help split this race.
Sean Baker (+187)
Sean Baker’s Anora is the other film dominating Oscar conversations this season, and for that the director is all but certain to earn his first Best Director nomination.
The American indie filmmaker has built a career highlighting marginalized communities and crafting humanizing stories. With a 35% chance of winning the Oscar on his first nomination, Baker’s latest work represents a breakthrough moment in solidifying his status as a legitimate auteur.
However, whether his signature style and unique blend of humor resonates with the Academy’s more traditional tastes remains uncertain. Competing against visually elaborate films like Dune: Part 2, Gladiator II, and The Brutalist, Anora may not be perceived as the kind of technically ambitious feat that is typically rewarded in this category.
Considering how dramatic and visually intricate the rest of the field is, I can’t justify a bet at this price for what is still essentially a smaller comedy production.
Denis Villeneuve (+700)
Among the contenders of this year’s race, Denis Villeneuve stands out as one of the only names with a previous Best Director nomination. With Dune: Part 2, Villeneuve continues his epic adaption of Frank Herbert’s novels and delivers a hugely successful sequel.
Dune: Part 2 is a well-rounded blockbuster production and will be a huge player in technical categories like Sound, Editing, and Costume Design. However, the finale to his Dune saga has already been greenlit for 2026, and the Academy could very well hold back on awarding him the honour without seeing the full scope of his vision in the planned final installment.
Villeneuve helms one of the year’s most complete productions, and as the director behind what could potentially be the most nominated film at this year’s ceremony, I believe his chances of winning Best Director are higher than what the market implies.
My Pick
While Corbet and Baker’s films may appeal to the technical aficionados, its Villeneuve’s Dune: Part 2 that was one of the biggest, most commercially successful films of the year. If you prefer not to get bogged down in the close contest of the two frontrunners, take a longshot on Villeneuve at +700.
Oscars Best Actor odds 2025
(Oscars Best Actor odds courtesy bet365 as of Dec. 11)
| Actor (Film) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) | -125 | 55.56% | $8 |
| Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) | +400 | 20.00% | $40 |
| Daniel Craig (Queer) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Paul Mescal (Gladiator II) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Joaquin Phoenix (Joker: Folie a Deux) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Sebastian Stan (A Different Man) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Ethan Herisse (Nickel Boys) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Jharrel Jerome (Unstoppable) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Hugh Grant (Heretic) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Andrew Garfield (We Live in Time) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Barry Keoghan (Bird) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Cillian Murphy (Small Things Like These) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Tom Hiddleston (The Life of Chuck) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Anthony Hopkins (One Life) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Jason Schwartzman (Between the Temples) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Tom Hanks (Here) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Nicholas Hoult (Juror #2) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Glen Powell (Hit Man) | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
2025 Oscars Best Actor favorites
Adrien Brody (-125)
Set in the same decade as his Oscar winning performance in The Pianist, The Brutalist once again sees seasoned industry veteran Adrien Brody navigating a world fractured by war.
The movie captures the journey of a Jewish immigrant escaping a devastated post-war Europe looking to start anew in America. While the performance is compelling and Brody is well respected by his peers, the Academy may shy from rewarding him again for a role that echoes themes from his previous Oscar win.
Seeking solace in his craft, this time as an architect, Brody delivers another defiant performance that has put him soundly in the lead of this race with over a 55% chance of becoming Best Actor. With no lead actor to compete with from Anora, Brody is uniquely positioned in benefiting the most from The Brutalist’s potential awards season domination and this race may all be his to lose.
Colman Domingo (+250)
Likely making his second trip to the Oscars in as many years, Colman Domingo is rooting himself as a force in Hollywood.
Even with the delicate true story of a man incarcerated for a crime he did not commit, Domingo’s performance is his best yet and markets had the rising star as the favorite before the surprise debut of his rival Adrien Brody’s The Brutalist.
With a much stronger performance to take to the award shows this year, Domingo has secured important precursory nominations and can swing the momentum his way with some key wins.
Ralph Fiennes (+250)
Front and centre in Conclave, Fiennes delivers a commanding performance that may finally earn him the elusive Oscar following a brilliant 30-year career. He plays Cardinal Dean Thomas, who is tasked with overseeing the election of the next pope, but instead finds himself amidst deep secrets and unexpected conspiracies.
While an undeniably artistic and thrilling film, Fiennes’ role doesn’t showcase the same animation or emotional range as other contenders, and I’m a little surprised to see the market give him almost a 30% chance in beating Domingo and Brody. Still, as the powerful lead of a successful film and with a career spanning multiple decades, the twice previously nominated actor remains a formidable contender in any Academy vote.
My Pick
It's hard to discount the lead and admiration the market had allotted Domingo before the release of The Brutalist, especially considering Brody has already won the Oscar before, but A24’s conscious effort of purchasing The Brutalist and the lack of a lead actor in Anora bode too well for this race’s likeliest winner in Adrien Brody.
Oscars Best Actress odds 2025
(Oscars Best Actress odds courtesy bet365 as of Dec. 11)
| Actress (Film) | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikey Madison (Anora) | -150 | 60.00% | $6.67 |
| Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) | +225 | 30.77% | $23 |
| Angelina Jolie (Maria) | +450 | 18.18% | $45 |
| Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Demi Moore (The Substance) | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun) | +900 | 10.00% | $90 |
| Amy Adams (Nightbitch) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Saoirse Ronan (Blitz) | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Naomi Scott (Smile 2) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| June Squibb (Thelma) | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Florence Pugh (We Live in Time) | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Lupita Nyong'o (A Quiet Place: Day One) | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Kirsten Dunst (Civil War) | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Kate Winslet (Lee) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Zendaya (Challengers) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Robin Wright (Here) | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Regina King (Shirley) | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Lily Gladstone (Fancy Dance) | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Anya Taylor-Joy (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga) | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
2025 Oscars Best Actress favorites
Mikey Madison (-150)
As the titular character of one of the favorites for Best Picture, its no surprise to see Mikey Madison dominate the board with a 60% implied probability of winning Best Actress.
Breaking through with a small role in Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, the industry is no stranger to the promise of the young star and Anora is the perfect culmination of her rise. At just 25, Madison would become one of the youngest women to ever win the award and with no female counterparts to compete with from The Brutalist, she nearly has the stage all to herself.
There is no Anora without Mikey Madison, and her authentic and emotional performance are the driving force behind what could go on to win Best Picture. She is not just a contender in this race; she is its rightful leader. In what is a familiar feeling for the character she portrays, all eyes will be on Mikey Madison.
Karla Sofia Gascon (+200)
Spanish actress Karla Sofia Gascon brings an interesting complexity to the race and has the chance to make history as the first trans woman ever nominated for Best Actress.
Another contender playing the titular character, Gascon is Emilia Perez, a notorious Mexican cartel leader who wishes to transition and live the remainder of their life as a woman. Did I mention its also a musical?
Though no fault of her own and rather a reflection of the script, Gascon’s character in the film has been mired with controversy and there has been vocal discontent on the nature of the trans story that was featured. Beyond just the character in the film, its hard to say if the Academy has evolved enough to award a trans woman the moniker of Best Actress.
Despite being priced as Madison’s closest competitor, I can’t see Gascon closing the gap, especially with Emilia Perez’s lackluster reviews. Gascon’s performance definitely has a chance of getting the nod for Best Actress, its just not a 1/3 chance like the markets imply.
Cynthia Erivo (+1000)
To huge fanfare, the Broadway powerhouse Wicked finally made its gravity defying debut on the big screen late last month, shattering box office records in the process. At the heart of this bewitching triumph is Cynthia Erivo, whose breathtaking vocals and emotional depth make her an impossible force to ignore in this year’s Oscar race, though the green skin probably helps too.
Markets will be scrambling to fit Erviro’s performance in with the leading pack of the race, making her worth the look in even with just a 9% implied probability to win. Though the Academy has proved it is always an uphill battle to win with a musical performance, the +1000 price just doesn’t capture her big arrival and momentum in this race.
My Pick
Gascon and Erviro both give legacy defining performances, and its hard to leave out influential industry veterans like Angelina Jolie (+400) and Nicole Kidman (+1000), but ultimately only one of these actors is packaged with the film in conversations as one of the best of the year – and Mikey Madison is Anora.
2024 Oscars betting results
| Category | Oscar winner | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best Picture | Oppenheimer | -5000 |
| Best Director | Christopher Nolan | -3000 |
| Best Actor | Cillian Murphy | -1000 |
| Best Actress | Emma Stone | +190 |
| Best Supporting Actor | Robert Downey Jr. | -2400 |
| Best Supporting Actress | Da'Vine Joy Randolph | -2000 |
How to bet on the Oscars
Odds for the 2025 Oscars are available at one of our best sportsbooks, and other books will begin providing them as the year progresses. It's worth checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonus offers you can take advantage of when betting on the Oscars.
Once you've chosen your favorite of our best sportsbooks, navigate to the section that includes Oscars 2025 odds. It may be listed under Entertainment or can be found by searching "Oscars" at your preferred sportsbook.
DraftKings had its own "Academy Awards" section last year, where you could find various betting markets available including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Lead Actor, and Best Lead Actress, among others.
Review the odds for each award and consider factors such as past winners, the name value of a given nominee, and the release date of a film. This information can help inform your betting decisions. Once you've selected your bet, enter the stake amount (the amount of money you want to wager) and confirm your bet.
It's essential to remember that betting on the Oscars or any sports event involves risk. Set a budget for yourself and gamble responsibly. Go and watch some movies, and may your bet be a winning one!
Oscars FAQs
When are the Oscars?
The 2025 Oscars will take place Sunday, March 2 beginning at 7 p.m. ET.
Where are the Oscars?
The Oscars are held at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, Calif.
Who's hosting the Oscars?
A host for the 2025 ceremony has yet to be announced.
How to watch the Oscars
The 2025 Oscars will be broadcast on ABC.
Oscars betting odds pages
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