AFC Championship Best Bets: Expert Predictions, Anytime TD Scorers & Pick 'Em Plays
The Kansas City Chiefs will play in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game on Sunday – and a familiar foe will be staring back at them as they gear up for yet another high-stakes postseason encounter with the Buffalo Bills. Follow along with our AFC Championship best bets for all of Sunday's expert picks.
We've scoured the best NFL betting sites to provide you with maximum value for every play we recommend. Here's a look at our best bets for the AFC Championship between the Bills and Chiefs, including spreads, totals, parlays, prop bets, pick 'em plays, TD scorer bets, and more.
The game from Arrowhead Stadium will kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET and air on CBS.
Bills vs. Chiefs best bets
| Expert | Pick | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Burke | Bills +1.5 | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Gabe Henderson | Kareem Hunt anytime TD scorer | +180 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Andrew Brennan | Khalil Shakir anytime TD scorer | +260 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Mike Spector | Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions | -110 via BetMGM | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks
Matt Burke: Kansas City has big-brothered Buffalo for years now. But it finally feels like the Bills’ time to turn the tide. Buffalo picked off Patrick Mahomes twice and held him to 196 yards passing in their regular season win over KC in November. If the Bills can get to the 30-point mark, it’s unlikely that the watered-down Chiefs offense will be able to match. Kansas City has hit the 30 point mark in just two games the entire season. Pick: Bills +1.5 (-105 at FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Gabe Henderson: We're banking on the Chiefs giving Kareem Hunt the ball in high-stakes situations. The veteran is out-touching RBI Isiah Pacheco 28 to 20 over the past three games and outgaining him by 57 yards in that stretch. Hunt has also scored in three consecutive games, tripling the output of his teammate this season in a fraction of the games. Pick: Kareem Hunt anytime TD scorer (+180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Andrew Brennan: Khalil Shakir led the team in targets and receptions last week while being on the other end for more than half of Allen's total passing yards. Allen will look to his most trusted target if he's forced to throw inside the red zone, and that's Shakir. Pick: Khalil Shakir anytime touchdown (+260 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mike Spector: Josh Allen has thrown just one interception in the last eight games, which is a big reason he has the second-highest Total QBR (77) this season. And with double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last six matchups against the Steve Spagnulo-led defense, Allen’s passing volume should be low enough for him to remain interception-free once again.. Pick: Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (-110 via BetMGM) at Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Bills vs. Chiefs Pick 'Em plays
- Noah Gray Over 1.5 receptions: We know about "Playoff Kelce," but about "Playoff Noah!?” OK, that’s a bit strong. But Gray is almost always good for two or three grabs in a big KC game. He had two or more receptions in three of four KC playoff games last year. He had three grabs last week against Houston. This number should probably be 2.5 receptions so grabbing it while I can. ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 1/2
- Dawson Knox Over 13.5 receiving yards: Knox was targeted a season-high six times in Buffalo’s 30-21 win over Kansas City back in November. He had four catches for 40 yards in that one. When Knox catches the ball, it’s usually good for a good chunk of yardage. He had a 24-yard catch against KC in the regular season and a 38-yard grab against Denver in the Wild Card round. ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 1/2
- Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 rush attempts: If it’s a big game, we get to see old-school Mahomes break out the wheels a bit. He ran the ball a season-high seven times last week against Houston and he ran it six times last year in the Divisional Round against Buffalo. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- DeAndre Hopkins Over 2.5 receptions: Hollywood Brown appears to now be WR2 in the Chiefs offense, ahead of DeAndre Hopkins. But Andy Reid rarely shows the same look two weeks in a row. Hopkins did not have a reception last week but in 8 of 10 games with KC this season, he went over 2.5 catches. Three catches from the veteran is not asking for a lot. ⭐⭐⭐ 1/2
Bills vs. Chiefs betting consensus
| Spread/Total | SBR betting consensus | SBR forum consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Chiefs -2.5 | 38% | 29% |
| Bills +2.5 | 62% 🔥 | 71% 🔥 |
| Over 48.5 | 55% 🔥 | 73% 🔥 |
| Under 48.5 | 45% | 27% |
Check out our detailed Bills vs. Chiefs matchup page, and join one of sports betting's most vibrant communities by signing up for the Sportsbook Review forum.
Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions
- Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks
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- Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions
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NFL betting odds pages
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code| Read our DraftKings Review
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