Bills vs. Chiefs Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction Today: AFC Championship
On Sunday, we get a familiar matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs as the rivals square off in the AFC Championship. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS).
As part of our conference championship predictions, my Bills vs. Chiefs player prop picks highlight three players I think will impact the outcome of the highly-anticipated tilt. Our best NFL betting sites list Kansas City as a 2-point favorite, with the total listed at 48.5
We also make our favorite touchdown prediction, calling the number of a player who has regularly found pay dirt in recent outings.
Bills vs. Chiefs NFL player prop picks: AFC Championship
Odds as of Friday and subject to change.
- Kareem Hunt touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer (+180 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Ty Johnson Over 6.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Bills vs. Chiefs touchdown prediction
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown scorer (+180) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +180 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 35.71%
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It's been a rough year for Isiah Pacheco.
Kansas City's RB1 has just 310 yards and one touchdown on 83 carries this season. He doesn't look fully healthy, and his usage backs that theory up. Andy Reid and Co. have hardly given the ball to Pacheco over the last three games, and he's done virtually nothing with those touches, tallying just 3.1 yards per carry.
As such, we're banking on the Chiefs giving Hunt the ball in high-stakes situations. The veteran is out-touching Pacheco 28 to 20 in the aforementioned span and outgaining him 119 to 62. Hunt has also scored in three consecutive games, tripling the output of his teammate this season in a fraction of the games.
Hunt's anytime touchdown odds are still listed at plus money with our best sports betting sites despite the fact he's found pay dirt in three consecutive outings. DraftKings has the best price at +180, which gives him an implied probability of 35.71%.
Best Bills vs. Chiefs prop picks
Ty Johnson Over 6.5 receiving yards (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Johnson has been the perfect complementary back to James Cook in Joe Brady's offense, especially seeing as he's enjoying his best statistical season since 2021. He's been involved in both the run and pass games out of the backfield; we expect that work to continue in the AFC Championship.
Kansas City boasts the No. 8 rush defense in the league, so Buffalo will need to add some wrinkles to its offense to get going at different times. Television broadcasts for Chiefs games love to remind viewers that Steve Spagnuolo dials up a myriad of blitzes, and one way Brady and Co. can counter those pressures is to unlock the quick passing game.
Johnson has surpassed the 6.5-yard mark nine times this season, including both playoff outings. He's trading at standard juice at bet365 to continue that streak. Given how our AFC Conference Championship predictions see this one playing out, we believe it's a safe bet.
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Xavier Worthy this, DeAndre Hopkins, that. But at the end of the day, Mahomes always resorts back to Kelce in the playoffs. The future Hall of Fame tight end hauled in seven receptions for 117 yards and a score in Kansas City's divisional-round victory over the Houston Texans.
Kelce has only cleared this total in a handful of games against Buffalo, but his targets have increased significantly over the last two months. The 35-year-old has been thrown to 61 times over the last seven games. He'll look to continue his hot streak as Mahomes turns to old reliable in the contest's crucial moments.
Despite Kelce's numbers declining this season, he showed the world he's still a force to be reckoned with when the lights shine brightest. Caesars offers Kelce Over 6.5 receptions at slightly more than standard vig (-115). We're comfortable playing it at this price given the tight end's historical postseason dominance.
Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions
- AFC Championship best bets
- Bills vs. Chiefs prediction
- Bills vs. Chiefs player props
- Bills vs. Chiefs parlay picks
- Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer predictions
- Josh Allen player prop picks
- Patrick Mahomes player prop picks
- Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes tale of the tape comparison
- How to bet Travis Kelce's NFL player props based on Taylor Swift's attendance
- Conference Championship referees
- Conference Championship coin toss odds
- Anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Conference Championship
- Conference Championship player props
Bills vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 26
- Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City)
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 26 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph W
- Favorite: Chiefs -2 (-105 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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