Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction, SNF Picks & Odds: Sunday Night Football
The Kansas City Chiefs look to complete a season sweep of a division rival when they host the Los Angeles Chargers as home favorites on Sunday Night Football.
- The Chiefs beat the Chargers 17-10 on the road in Week 4
- Kansas City would clinch a ninth straight AFC West title with a win
- Los Angeles has won five of its last six games, and is off to its best start (8-4) since 2018
The Sunday Night Football odds have the Chiefs as 4-point favorites, but our Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction doubles down on my Chargers vs. Chiefs early picks for this game, expecting a cover from the road ‘dogs.
Best Chargers vs. Chiefs picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Chargers +4 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Chiefs ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Justin Herbert Under 0.5 interceptions (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Chargers vs. Chiefs against the spread prediction: Sunday Night Football
Chargers to cover the spread: +4 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
Chargers are due to beat a good team
Those who back the Chiefs in this matchup will likely do so citing that the Chargers have beaten up on weaker competition.
Against teams under .500 this season, Los Angeles is 6-0, winning those games by an average of 27-12.5 and totaling a +87 point differential. Against teams .500 or better, the Chargers are 2-4 with an average score of 16.3-18.8 and a -15-point differential.
While those numbers are not the most encouraging, it is hard to overlook how fortunate Kansas City has been this year. The Chiefs have won nine games by seven or fewer points while beating two teams with five combined wins (Raiders and Panthers) by five total points— and could easily have lost both.
Los Angeles may not need much offense
The Chargers have the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense (15.7 points per game allowed) and have held nine opponents to 17 or fewer points, including holding the Chiefs to 17 in their Week 4 matchup.
Los Angeles has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards allowed per attempt (6.6) this season and the fourth-lowest passer rating since Week 8. The stout defense is a big reason the Chargers have the best point differential (+72) among all AFC West teams.
Patrick Mahomes is 9-2 in his career against the Chargers with a 29-7 TD-INT ratio. But the pressure he has been under lately is concerning, as he has been sacked five times in each of the last two games.
Kansas City’s historic ATS struggles
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games, which is already the most games in a row without a cover in Mahomes’ career.
In the process, they became the third defending Super Bowl champion in the last 24 years to go six or more consecutive games without a cover. However, Mahomes and the Chiefs are responsible for one of those other occurrences in 2020. Regardless, they remain a top contender by the Super Bowl odds.
Kansas City is a 3.5-point favorite at FanDuel, so I am taking advantage of the better number at the standard -110 juice at BetMGM.
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Chargers vs. Chiefs player prop
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Justin Herbert Under 0.5 interceptions (-125) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Herbert is the second player ever with 2,500 passing yards and one or zero interceptions in his first 12 games of a season, joining Aaron Rodgers.
Herbert is also the third player ever with zero interceptions in 10 straight games in a single season, with a minimum of 15 attempts in each game.
He faces a Chiefs defense with one interception in the last six games. And since Week 9, Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and eighth-most passing touchdowns, which suggests Herbert should get into a comfortable groove in this matchup.
Caesars is the only top sports betting site offering better than -130 odds to back the Under on Herbert’s interceptions. A $10 winning wager would net $8 in profits.
Best odds: -125 via Caesars | Implied probability: 55.56%
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Chargers vs. Chiefs odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 37 degrees, 14% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph WSW
- Favorite: Chiefs -4 (-110 via BetMGM)
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