Rookie QBs in the Conference Championships: Will Jayden Daniels Bust NFL Playoffs Trend?
Jayden Daniels is the sixth rookie quarterback in NFL history to reach a conference championship game and just the second since 2010. Can he be the first to actually win one and reach the Super Bowl?
The Jayden Daniels odds and player props for the Washington Commanders' matchup with the Super Bowl odds favorites Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game imply the rookie could struggle like those in the past.
However, Daniels has proven to be a far more reliable quarterback than any rookie to ever reach their respective conference championship. Here's how the former Heisman Trophy winner stacks up with past rookie QBs.
Which rookie QBs have reached NFL Conference Championship?
All stats provided by ESPN and PFF.
| Rookie QB | QBR (rank) | Total EPA (rank) | Big-time throws (rank) | Turnover-worthy plays (rank) | Adjusted completion rate (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels, Commanders | 70.5 (4th) | 98.4 (4th) | 20 (15th) | 11 (29th) | 79.1% (5th) |
| Brock Purdy, 49ers | 67.9 (7th) | N/A* | 3 (40th) | 7 (38th) | 77.7% (8th) |
| Mark Sanchez, Jets | 32.8 (27th) | 18.5 (25th) | 17 (18th) | 23 (2nd) | 63.9% (44th) |
| Joe Flacco, Ravens | 47.1 (23rd) | 22.3 (26th) | 16 (23rd) | 18 (5th) | 71% (25th) |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers | N/A^ | N/A^ | N/A^ | N/A^ | N/A^ |
| Shaun King, Buccaneers | N/A^ | N/A^ | N/A^ | N/A^ | N/A^ |
* Only started five games and didn't qualify (ranked sixth in EPA/play) | ^ Data not available in previous seasons
Even with the missing data from Ben Roethlisberger's standout rookie season, it's fairly clear that Daniels has elevated his team more than any rookie QB to reach a conference championship in NFL history. He closed as the obvious choice by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, an award only Roethlisberger took home among the other five rookie passers who have led their team to a conference championship.
And while Roethlisberger is a future Pro Football Hall of Fame QB, his rookie season in which he went 13-0 as the starter had more to do with a dominant defense and running game than his passing exploits. He was more of a game manager with 18 total touchdowns and 2,621 passing yards - Daniels outpaced him by a mile with 31 total touchdowns and 3,568 passing yards.
Even just by the numbers, it's obvious that the other rookie quarterbacks entered situations where they weren't necessarily relied upon to win games. They joined franchises with the infrastructure to reach their conference championship games and didn't get there because of them - in some cases, the teams got there in spite of those rookie passers.
Roethlisberger and Purdy had the most impactful rookie seasons, and neither is anywhere close to Daniels'. Had Purdy started the whole year, maybe he would have rivalled it, but I have my doubts. He was far closer to the game manager that Roethlisberger was than the game changer that Daniels has been.
On top of his passing numbers being far more impressive than the other rookies to make conference championships, the LSU alum also ran for the ninth-most yards of any QB in NFL history (891) in the regular season. That was while ripping off the 11th-most 10-plus-yard runs (30), forcing the 13th-most missed tackles in the NFL (49), and rushing for the 19th-most yards after contact (638) among any player across the entire league.
Unlike the other QBs to reach conference championships, Daniels is coming off one of the best rookie seasons of all-time. That's why past championship performances from rookie quarterbacks shouldn't inform how you bet on the No. 2 pick - or the Commanders in general.
Comparing stats for rookie QBs in NFL Conference Championship
| Rookie QB | Outcome vs. opponent | Passing yards | Total TDs / INTs | Completion rate | QBR / Passer rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy* | Lost to Philadelphia Eagles (31-7) | 23 | 1 / 0 | 100% | 3.5 / 90.6 |
| Mark Sanchez | Lost to Indianapolis Colts (30-17) | 257 | 2 / 1 | 56.7% | 74.2 / 93.3 |
| Joe Flacco | Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers (23-14) | 141 | 0 / 3 | 43.3% | 12.3 / 18.2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | Lost to New England Patriots (41-27) | 226 | 2 / 3 | 58.3% | N/A / 78.1 |
| Shaun King | Lost to St. Louis Rams (11-6) | 163 | 0 / 2 | 44.8% | N/A / 34.1 |
* Exited with injury in first quarter
You know it's not great when the best statistical rookie championship performance in NFL history comes from the guy whose two most famous moments in the league are the butt fumble and eating a hot dog on the sideline.
Purdy likely would have outdone him, but he exited the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles in the first quarter with an injury to his throwing elbow. On the bright side, that helped him become the only rookie QB to start a championship game and not throw an interception.
The other quarterbacks all played relatively poorly, and three of them lost to the eventual Super Bowl champions. Excluding Purdy for obvious reasons, rookies have averaged just 196.8 passing yards with one touchdown and 2.3 interceptions in conference championships.
While there's never been a rookie quarterback to thrive on this stage, I think Daniels will blow by those averages. Heck, the 24-year-old has only thrown for fewer than 200 yards in two of 17 games this season (including playoffs) in which he played the bulk of the snaps, and one of those was his first career start.
In fact, he's only thrown more than one interception in a game twice this season, and while one of those performances did come against the Eagles, he finished with five touchdown passes in a 36-33 walk-off win in the rematch.
Daniels has also been far better than the other five rookie quarterbacks in his playoff run to reach the conference championship - he's averaging 283.5 passing yards and two touchdowns per game in the playoffs with zero interceptions. The other five rookie QBs combined to average 180.5 passing yards and 1.1 total touchdowns with 0.7 interceptions across nine non-conference championship playoff games.
So while the Eagles have one of the league's best defenses, I don't expect Daniels to be a net-negative performer like previous rookie quarterbacks have been in conference championship games. He's flat-out a far better player as a rookie than any of them were, and he's already torched this Philadelphia defense once.
Team rankings for rookie QBs in NFL Conference Championship
| Rookie QB's team | Yards per game (rank) | Points per game (rank) | Sacks allowed (rank) | Yards allowed per game (rank) | Points allowed per game (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders (Daniels) | 369.6 (7th) | 28.5 (5th) | 50 (24th) | 327.9 (13th) | 23.0 (18th) |
| 49ers (Purdy) | 365.6 (5th) | 26.5 (6th) | 31 (6th) | 300.6 (1st) | 16.3 (1st) |
| Jets (Sanchez) | 321 (20th) | 21.8 (17th) | 30 (11th) | 252.3 (1st) | 14.8 (1st) |
| Ravens (Flacco) | 324 (18th) | 24.1 (11th) | 33 (18th) | 261.1 (2nd) | 15.3 (3rd) |
| Steelers (Roethlisberger) | 324 (16th) | 23.3 (11th) | 20 (14th) | 258.4 (1st) | 15.7 (1st) |
| Buccaneers (King) | 265.9 (28th) | 16.9 (27th) | 42 (18th) | 267.5 (3rd) | 14.7 (3rd) |
This may not support the Commanders pulling off the upset against the Eagles, but what it does show is just how important to Washington's success Daniels has been this season. Every other rookie quarterback to reach a conference championship joined a team with an elite defense.
That's part of the reason Daniels is the only one of the rookie QBs catching +12000 odds or longer by the opening Super Bowl odds to ultimately lead his team to a conference championship apperance. Washington was viewed as non-factor coming into the season, and Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury turned this offense into one of the best in the league to help make up for a middling defense.
That's why the Commanders Super Bowl odds are intriguing to bet, and while I'm not so sure they'll beat the Eagles in Philadelphia, I am sure Daniels won't be the reason they lose. And I think it's reasonable to say he's the better quarterback taking the field in the NFC Championship Game, especially with how putrid Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been as of late.
Jayden Daniels player props vs. Eagles
Jayden Daniels player prop predictions vs. Eagles: NFC Championship Game
Again, I don't know that I'd necessarily take the Commanders to win the NFC Championship Game, but I'm all for backing Daniels to do everything in his power to become the first rookie QB to reach the Super Bowl.
He's been sensational since stepping up his game during his senior season at LSU last year, which can be tracked back to him beginning to use VR simulations to help develop his skills. It also doesn't hurt that he inherited a true go-to receiver in Terry McLaurin.
Those two are the biggest factor in Washington's offense being fourth in the NFL in EPA per play this season, and both were the catalysts in pulling off the comeback win against the Eagles in Week 16.
Daniels threw for 258 in that game and accounted for three big-time throws, tied for his season high, which is part of the reason it's a surprise to see his passing yards set at just 220.5 for Round 3 against the Eagles.
He's blown by that line in both playoff games, and in the 15 regular-season games he didn't exit early, he topped it in 10 of them (66.7%). He's unlike any rookie QB to ever make a conference championship game, and I expect him to leave his mark.
Best bet: Jayden Daniels Over 220.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) | Implied probability: 52.38%
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