Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes: Tale of the Tape Comparison Ahead of Bills vs. Chiefs in AFC Championship

Sunday's AFC Championship between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will represent a career-defining moment for Josh Allen, who looks to defeat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs for the first time on his fourth attempt.

Allen's regular-season superiority over Mahomes will be rendered utterly meaningless without a win over the three-time Super Bowl MVP in a postseason encounter. Allen enjoyed a superhuman-like season that had him as the NFL MVP odds favorite when the market closed.

Meanwhile, Mahomes looks to become the first quarterback to win four straight against the same counterpart in the postseason. While that's far less heralded than most of his accolades, it would also facilitate a third straight Super Bowl odds appearance.

Which quarterback has the edge ahead of Sunday's 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff? Here is our Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes tale of the tape featuring their head-to-head record, stats, and previous history ahead of Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship.

Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes record

• Regular season H2H record: Allen (4-1), Mahomes (1-4)
• Playoff H2H record: Mahomes (3-0), Allen (0-3)

Much like his 4-1 regular-season record against Mahomes, Allen's MVP-caliber season will provide absolutely no solace if he falls to the Chiefs legend for a fourth consecutive time in a win-or-go-home scenario.

Our Andrew Brennan profiled the Bills odds and why they'll win the Super Bowl. I'm sure you can guess which player forms the bedrock of his reasoning. Thankfully, Mr. Brennan doesn't include the below rant from a certain Stephen A. Smith. For entertainment value, I couldn't help myself: 

On the other hand, like Mahomes' new-found propensity to embellish, I dove into the Chiefs Super Bowl odds and why they'll win their third successive Super Bowl. Mahomes got more attention in that piece than a toddler meeting his grandparents for the first time.

The Chiefs QB is starting to rub people the wrong way for unnecessary flamboyant falls that Juilliard School graduates would be envious of. And then there's the widespread perception of Mahomes' preferential treatment from officials - a subject I won't touch out of fear of reprisal from Roger Goodell. I know his minions are as omnipresent as the Mahomes' haters.

While I'm on board with imploring Mahomes to cut out the theatrics, his playoff dominance over Allen - one of the best quarterbacks of the generation - is as impressive as his team's quest for a three-peat.

Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes stats

Here is a look at how Allen and Mahomes compare statistically in the regular season this year and across their careers, as well as in their head-to-head matchups in the regular season and postseason. All stats courtesy of NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.

Allen vs. Mahomes 2024 stats

Here are each quarterback's stats from the regular season this year.

Allen vs. Mahomes career stats

Here are each quarterback's career stats from the regular season.

Allen vs. Mahomes regular-season stats H2H

Here are each quarterback's stats against each other in the regular season.

Allen vs. Mahomes playoff stats H2H

Here are each quarterback's stats against each other in the NFL playoffs.

Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes playoff games

Here is a look at every NFL playoffs matchup between Allen and Mahomes.

2020 AFC Championship: Chiefs 38, Bills 24 

Mahomes dominated the first and only time the protagonist and antagonist (I'll let you decide who's who) met in an AFC Championship. He was 29-for-38 (76.3%) for 325 yards, three touchdowns, no picks, and a 127.6 passer rating.

Compare that to Allen, whose only previous AFC Championship didn't go as he envisioned. He was 28-for-48 (58.3%) for 287 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and an 80.8 rating. He's thrown four picks in 12 total playoff games - this was the only one versus the Chiefs. 

Allen added 88 yards on the ground but was undone by the second-lowest completion percentage of his postseason career. Meanwhile, Mahomes' 76.3% completion rate was his fourth-best in 19 playoff games. 

2021 AFC Divisional Round: Chiefs 42, Bills 36 (OT) 

Football fans were the only undisputed winner in this unforgettable encounter. Unsurprisingly, overtime was required, as it featured two of the all-time greatest playoff performances.  

Allen was 27-for-37 (73%) for 329 yards, four touchdowns, and a 136 rating. He added 68 yards on the ground and was clutch down the stretch. He committed the cardinal sin, though, of leaving 17 seconds on the clock after setting up Gabriel Davis for what would have been the game-winning score against most. 

Mahomes was 33-for-44 (75%) for 378 yards, three touchdowns, and a 123.1 rating. He added 69 yards and a touchdown on the ground. And, like he's done so many times, he drove down the field, got into field-goal territory, and forced overtime with 17 seconds left. 

We all know what happened after that. 

2022 AFC Divisional Round: Chiefs 27, Bills 24

It's a game of inches, moments, and what-could-have-beens. Just ask Mark Andrews.

The Bills missed a potentially game-tying field goal with 6:40 remaining, resigning them to another premature playoff departure. It was the only time Allen had home-field advantage in the playoffs against Mahomes. Despite an inferior rating, Allen gave his team a chance to win, as he did in the divisional round one year earlier.

Allen endured his fair share of challenges aerially. He was 26-for-39 (66.7%) for 186 yards, one touchdown, and an 86.1 rating. What he lacked in the air, he made up for on the ground, rushing for 72 yards and two touchdowns. 

Mahomes, like he does more times than impersonating Kermit the Frog, did what he must. Prior to the game, people questioned his ability to win on the road in the playoffs. In the end, he quieted them like he did the Bills Mafia.

Mahomes was 17-for-23 (73.9%) for 215 yards, two touchdowns, and a 131.6 rating. As a mere afterthought, he only mustered 19 yards on the ground.

2025 AFC Championship: TBD

Part of me feels like Allen is too elite to lose four in a row to anyone.

I then dwell on Kansas City's sure-thing playoff aura, which I outlined in my Bills vs. Chiefs early picks, and I'm not so sure. The main difference in previous battles was Mahomes' sure-handedness and mistake-free play. He didn't throw a pick or fumble, while Allen was intercepted once and fumbled twice.

Mahomes and his Chiefs, who have a slight Super Bowl odds advantage, haven't committed a turnover since Week 11, while the most impressive aspect of Allen's season is the reduction in his turnover percentage.

I don't expect either quarterback to make a mistake of significance on Sunday. The one who does will likely have to wait another year for a crack at the Lombardi Trophy.

Bills vs. Chiefs expert picks & predictions

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