NFL Playoff Predictions: Best Bets to Make & Miss Postseason Entering Week 14
With just five weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, the latest NFL playoffs odds still offer value on a few teams to make the 14-team postseason field.
Our playoff predictions and best bets to make and miss the NFL playoffs focus on the best plus-money values down the stretch beyond the Super Bowl odds favorites.
Here is a look at the NFL playoff picture and best bets to make the playoffs as we look ahead to the NFL Week 14 odds.
NFL playoff picture entering Week 14
NFL playoff picture courtesy of NFL.com as of Tuesday, Dec. 3.
| Seed | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) | Detroit Lions (11-1) |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills (10-2) | Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) | Seattle Seahawks (7-5) |
| 4 | Houston Texans (8-5) | Atlanta Falcons (6-6) |
| 5 | Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) | Minnesota Vikings (10-2) |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens (8-5) | Green Bay Packers (9-3) |
| 7 | Denver Broncos (8-5) | Washington Commanders (8-5) |
NFL playoff odds entering Week 14
My projected NFL playoff field
NFL playoff odds from our best NFL betting sites entering Week 14.
AFC playoff projections
| Seed | Team | Best odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bills | OFF (clinched) | N/A |
| 2 | Chiefs | OFF (clinched) | N/A |
| 3 | Ravens | -6000 via DraftKings | 98.36% |
| 4 | Texans | -3000 via FanDuel | 96.77% |
| 5 | Steelers | -10000 via BetMGM | 99.01% |
| 6 | Chargers | -1800 via DraftKings | 94.74% |
| 7 | Broncos | -250 via DraftKings | 71.43% |
NFC playoff projections
| Seed | Team | Best odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions | OFF | N/A |
| 2 | Eagles | OFF | N/A |
| 3 | Falcons | -130 via BetMGM | 56.52% |
| 4 | Cardinals | +172 via FanDuel | 36.76% |
| 5 | Vikings | OFF | N/A |
| 6 | Packers | -10000 via BetMGM | 99.01% |
| 7 | Buccaneers | -135 via ESPN BET | 57.45% |
Best value bet to make NFL playoffs
Cardinals (+172)
All four NFC West teams have plus-money odds to make the playoffs, but one of them is guaranteed a spot by virtue of winning the division. I highlighted the Cardinals last week as my favorite pick among the bunch at +126 odds based on their favorable schedule down the stretch.
In Week 13, they nearly beat a team they weren't supposed to in the Minnesota Vikings, while the Seahawks almost blew a game against the three-win New York Jets. So why have the odds shifted so strongly in Seattle's favor?
Let's not forget that the Seahawks will likely be underdogs in every game the rest of the way, including a critical Week 15 matchup at Arizona that could neutralize the tiebreaker between these two.
Meanwhile, Kyler Murray and Co. face the easiest remaining schedule in the division and will host the 49ers in Week 18 in a game that could secure their playoff fate. That's why I'm seizing on these +172 odds via FanDuel before Arizona goes on a run.
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Best value bet to miss NFL playoffs
Commanders (+275)
Last week, I spotlighted the Buccaneers as one of my favorite values to make the postseason - which would come at the Commanders' expense.
Our best sportsbooks are now pricing Tampa Bay at minus-odds to make the playoffs, so I don't love that value as much anymore, but they're still dealing Washington as a heavy favorite to make it. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Yes, Jayden Daniels helped the Commanders end a three-game losing spell by blowing out the hapless Tennessee Titans, but they still face a tough stretch after their Week 14 bye week and remain just 1.5 games above the Bucs.
Washington also lost the tiebreaker to Tampa Bay in Week 1, so the margin for error is slim for this group. It doesn't feel like the market is recognizing the downside with these +275 odds, which imply a 26.67% chance that the Commanders backslide.
If Daniels shows any signs of being a rookie or the defense continues to give up big plays, we could be staring at a nice profit with these odds via BetMGM turning a $10 bet into a $27.50 profit if the Commanders miss the playoffs.
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NFL playoffs schedule
- Wild Card Round: Jan. 11-13
- Divisional Round: Jan. 18-19
- Conference Championships: Jan. 26
- Super Bowl: Feb. 9
How do the NFL playoffs work?
Since 2020, the NFL has featured an expanded playoff field of 14 teams - seven in each conference - eliminating the bye week for the No. 2 seed and extending wild-card weekend to six games spanning from Saturday to Monday.
The No. 1 seed in each conference will still enjoy a bye week in the first round of the playoffs, while the remaining three division winners will host the three wild-card teams with the highest seeds facing the lowest seeds (No. 2 vs. No. 7, No. 3 vs. No. 6, No. 4 vs. No. 5).
The winners of those games will advance to the divisional round, where the highest remaining seeds wiill face the lowest seeds. So the No. 1 seed will face the worst-seeded team - which is always the No. 4 seed or worse - while the remaining two teams will meet in the other divisional round matchup.
The two winners in each conference will then meet in the AFC Championship and NFC Championship, which are both played on Championship Sunday, and the respective conference winners will meet two weeks later in the Super Bowl.
NFL betting odds pages
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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