NFL Upset Picks, Predictions Week 14: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
NFL underdogs look to have a better week in Week 14 than they did last week, as favorites won 14 of the 16 games outright.
- The only two underdogs to win last week were two division leaders (Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles)
- Each of the 10 biggest favorites all won in Week 13
- Three teams are home underdogs by the NFL Week 14 odds, two of which hail from the NFC East (New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys)
Our NFL upset picks fade one of the best and worst teams in the league and expect another division leader to pull an outright upset as part of our NFL Week 14 predictions.
NFL underdogs to back: Week 14
NFL odds as of Tuesday. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Jaguars (+165 via BetMGM) at Titans ⭐⭐⭐
- Seahawks (+130 via DraftKings) at Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Rams (+176 via FanDuel) vs. Bills ⭐⭐
Week 14 upset predictions
NFL picks made Tuesday. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jaguars (+165) ⭐⭐⭐
The Jacksonville Jaguars have matched their longest losing streak under head coach Doug Pederson (five games), and have now lost at least 10 games for the fifth time in the last seven seasons. Despite that, it is not usual for a three-win team like the Tennessee Titans to be 4-point favorites, especially against a division opponent.
Our best NFL betting sites clearly do not believe in Mac Jones, despite him throwing for 235 yards and leading the team to two second-half touchdown drives in relief of the injured Trevor Lawrence. It will not take much offense from the Jaguars to pull this road upset, as the Titans have scored 20 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games.
This is an automatic fade of a team that is already guaranteed a losing season for the third straight year. All of our best sports betting sites have Jacksonville with at least +160 moneyline odds, but through BetMGM’s +165 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $16.50 in profits.
Best odds: +165 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 37.74%
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Seahawks (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals played just two weeks ago. The Seahawks won that game 16-6 at home, as it was the Cardinals’ only game this season without a touchdown. Arizona has now played seven games this season where it has scored one or fewer touchdowns, and it is 1-6 in those games. Meanwhile, Seattle is red-hot amid a three-game winning streak.
Much of the Seahawks’ success recently is owed to their defense, which has allowed 14.7 points per game. It has held each opponent under 300 total yards during the three-game winning streak (the team's second such winning streak of the season).
The best value on the underdog Seahawks is at DraftKings, the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +126 odds. Our Gary Pearson is also backing Seattle with his NFL picks against the spread for Week 14.
Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Rams (+176) ⭐⭐
The Buffalo Bills have the third-longest active winning streak in the league (seven games). Buffalo now make the cross-country trip from playing in a blizzard at home on Sunday night to playing indoors in Los Angeles. The Bills entered last week’s game allowing 4.9 yards per carry (third-worst in the NFL), and that average got worse after allowing the 49ers to run for 5.7 yards per carry.
In a controlled weather environment, the Rams have the balance with the running game and the perimeter weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to challenge the Bills in ways their defense has not been challenged this year.
This is a conservative two-star play, as Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford has eight touchdowns and zero turnovers in his last three games. There is a big 16-cent gap between FanDuel’s +176 odds and the +160 odds offered at DraftKings on the low end of this market.
Best odds: +176 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 36.23%
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