NFL Week 6 Early Picks & Predictions: Back Bengals, Bills After Tough Losses
It was a wild week in the NFL with multiple contenders losing in gutting fashion, but we're buying low on two of those teams in our NFL Week 6 early picks and predictions.
The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals, two of the preseason Super Bowl odds favorites, fell on a game-winning field goal Sunday but face favorable matchups to bounce back in Week 6.
We aren't so confident about the Cleveland Browns or Dallas Cowboys, who could get exposed as underdogs across our NFL betting sites.
Here are our best early picks and predictions by the NFL Week 6 odds.
NFL Week 6 early picks
NFL odds as of Monday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Eagles -8.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Lions -3 (-105 via bet365) at Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bengals -3.5 (-110 via DraftKings) at Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bills -2.5 (-110 via Caesars) at Jets ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don't miss the rest of our Week 6 NFL picks.
NFL Week 6 odds & predictions
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Eagles -8.5 vs. Browns ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While the Washington Commanders were one of the most popular bets in Week 5, the Browns became a clear contrarian play and favorite among sharps in a buy-low spot.
There was only one problem: Cleveland just isn't any good.
The offense is in absolute disarray under Deshaun Watson, whom head coach Kevin Stefanski refuses to replace even as the cries from outside reach a deafening pitch.
The Browns went 1-for-13 on third down and were sacked seven times against the Commanders, who also did whatever they wanted offensively against a Cleveland defense that was its calling card last year.
I can't say I'm in love with the Eagles so far, but they've had two weeks to shake off their own frustrating loss in Tampa Bay and prepare for Watson and this inept Browns attack.
With this game priced at -9 or shorter everywhere else, I'm jumping on this line at FanDuel and fading Cleveland on a weekly basis before it becomes prohibitive to do so.
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Lions -3 at Cowboys ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
When Dallas won on Sunday Night Football, I figured our best sportsbooks might offer a foolish price on this game. But even this line surprises me.
The Cowboys' defense is one of the most vulnerable units in football right now, which was true even before a rash of injuries to key personnel. That was on full display in back-to-back weeks against the Ravens and New Orleans Saints.
The Steelers' rushing attack, which has been woefully inefficient this year, couldn't take advantage of this battered and beleaguered Cowboys defense.
I have no doubts the Lions can change that with their elite run game - especially after a bye week to study Dallas' exploitable run defense.
Detroit is dealing at -3.5 at some of our best sports betting apps, so I'm especially drawn to -3 at these -105 odds via bet365.
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Bengals -3.5 at Giants ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It seems like our best sports betting sites are collectively bailing on the Bengals in the futures market (more on that below) after a 1-4 start, and they aren't particularly high on them on the point spread by the Sunday Night Football odds, either.
That comes even after a week in which Cincinnati scored 38 points against one of the NFL's best teams through the first four weeks.
Joe Burrow and this passing attack is starting to look explosive again, even if the defense couldn't overcome myriad injuries to the secondary on Sunday.
I don't see that as being as big of an issue against the Giants, who are averaging just 218.2 passing yards and haven't thrown for 300 yards in a game this season.
This could certainly be a trap game for Cincinnati, but I'd expect some soul-searching from this group after a tough five-game stretch that includes four losses by a combined 15 points.
If the Bengals lose this one, it might be time to start writing their obituaries on the season. I don't think we'll see it come to that.
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Bills -2.5 at Jets ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is another number I was genuinely surprised to see, even after the Bills' second consecutive loss on Sunday.
Let's just state the obvious: Buffalo's offense didn't look good in Week 5, when Josh Allen completed 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards in a 23-20 loss to the Houston Texans. And it wasn't any better last week in a 35-10 loss to the Ravens.
But I still have more faith in that unit than I do in the Jets offense, which was embarrassed in London in a miserable day for Aaron Rodgers and Co.
New York ranks 25th in scoring offense (18.6 PPG) and could now be forced to contend with an injury to Rodgers, who said after the game that he suffered a low ankle sprain in the loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
Even if he suits up for the Monday Night Football underdogs, I'm not expecting much from a quarterback whose mobility was already becoming an issue.
And if Buffalo's run game can show a spark against an exploitable Jets front, I suspect we'll see Allen return to form without needing to play hero.
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My favorite NFL futures bet entering Week 6
- Bengals to win the Super Bowl (+3500 via BetMGM)
Before you get up in arms about the Bengals' 1-4 start and how hard it is to come back ... I hear you. That's why you'd get $350 for every $10 bet if they win it all.
Here's what I know: Cincinnati has overcome a rotten start to make (or win) the AFC Championship in each of Burrow's two healthy seasons, and he's playing out of his mind right now.
He's dealing as one of the NFL MVP odds favorites after throwing for 392 yards and five touchdowns on Sunday.
I'm not saying the Bengals shouldn't have long odds to win it all - it's tough to make the playoffs after such a slow start. But outside of the four division leaders, are we sure any other AFC team is better than Cincinnati? Is it even close?
If Burrow and Co. make the postseason as a wild-card team, they'll be the most dreaded opponent for any top seed and a trendy bet to win it all at odds that would surely be a fraction of what you can bet this week at BetMGM.
I'd rather take a slight risk now with a massive payout if, as they've done on multiple occasions, the Bengals turn things around and find themselves within striking distance of the Lombardi Trophy.
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