Pereira vs. Rountree Prediction, Expert Pick & Odds: UFC 307

Alex Pereira puts his light heavyweight strap on the line in the headliner of Saturday’s UFC 307 event in Salt Lake City, Utah against Khalil Rountree Jr.

Pereira, 37, aims for a third successful title defense after most recently dispatching Jiri Prochazka by second-round TKO at UFC 303 in June. “Poatan” treated Prochazka to a near-identical fate to claim the throne at UFC 295 back in November of last year. Now he heads to Utah with four straight wins, a career record of 11-2, and nine stoppages by KO/TKO.

As for the latest challenger in our Pereira vs. Rountree prediction, the formerly inconsistent Rountree has quietly claimed five straight wins in the Octagon, with four coming via strikes. The 34-year-old punched his ticket to Salt Lake City with a third-round TKO of Anthony Smith in December 2023, with the stoppage bringing his UFC record to 9-5.

Pereira vs. Rountree prediction & best bet

(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

• Fight prediction: Pereira moneyline (-500 via Betway)⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Pereira vs. Rountree Under 1.5 Rounds (+105 via Betway)⭐⭐⭐

Pereira vs. Rountree fight analysis

Whether you believe it’s by design or what’s left of a meritocracy in the world’s top promotion, Pereira gets another favorable matchup in Saturday’s challenger.

A methodical, technically savvy kickboxer who can end a fight with either fist, the reigning champ should enjoy the kind of fight he wants opposite Rountree, an explosive striker who often fades after a quick start.

The challenger is the classic front-runner, and his tendency to slow down after a round-and-a-half leaves him open to ample punishment. He eats 4.18 significant strikes per minute to the 3.84 he lands.

Pereira, by comparison, lands over 60% of his significant strike attempts at 5.23 per minute and defends over half the opposition’s attempts.

While his gaudy knockout rate might suggest otherwise, the Brazilian spends much of the opening stanza making his reads, and Rountree will give him plenty should the challenger come out slinging heavy leather as usual. Whether he catches a surging Rountree with his patented left hook or takes him into the later rounds before opening up, Pereira should outduel his latest opponent and keep the divisional crown in Brazil.

This week’s picks lie with Betway on the strength of its variety and competitive lines. Predictably, the champion heads to Utah as a lopsided favorite across all of our best sports betting sites, with Betway listing him at a whopping -500.

Prediction: Pereira moneyline (-500 via Betway) | Implied probability: 83.3%

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Pereira vs. Rountree best bet

As far as prop bets go, one’s natural inclination may be to choose a 10th career KO/TKO in a dozen wins for “Poatan." But given his status as the headliner’s heavy betting favorite, round props are the way to go for this week.

Those looking to play it safe-ish will find Under 2.5 Rounds at a decent -227 with Betway. And justifiably so, as all but one of Pereira’s nine knockouts have beaten the third-round bell.

However, the Under on 1.5 frames is even more compelling given Rountree’s penchant for swift starts. Pereira has scored six of his nine stoppages within a round-and-a-half, and should Rountree go headhunting early and often, one of these two light heavyweights will be left counting the lights before they see a second stanza.

Luckily, the lines on the Under for 1.5 rounds offer respectable value at our best sportsbooks, including Betway’s price of +105.

I also expanded on this pick in my UFC predictions and odds for UFC 307.

Best bet: Pereira vs. Rountree Under 1.5 Rounds (+105 via Betway) | Implied probability: 48.8%

Pereira vs. Rountree odds

Odds via Betway as of Saturday

Pereira vs. Rountree tale of the tape

Pereira vs. Rountree fight info

• When: Saturday, Oct 5, 10 p.m. ET (main card)
• Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
• How to watch: PPV, ESPN+
• Favorite: Pereira (-500 via Betway)

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