Jones vs. Miocic Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 309
It’s been a long time coming, but Jon Jones’ return to action is finally set for tonight.
Now 20 months after his successful heavyweight debut, the reigning divisional champ will defend his crown against Stipe Miocic during UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, and we're making our Jones vs. Miocic prediction ahead of Saturday’s action.
Jones, 37, most recently competed at UFC 285 in March of last year, submitting Cyril Gane in under a round to become a two-division UFC champion. The defending king hasn’t tasted defeat in 18 fights, spanning 15 years with 17 stoppages in 27 career victories.
Miocic ends an even longer layoff than Jones with Saturday’s contest. He last walked into the Octagon in March 2021 at UFC 260, when Francis Ngannou ended his second reign as heavyweight champ with second-round KO. The defeat followed two straight wins over Daniel Cormier, and it brought Miocic’s promotional slate to 14-4.
The UFC 309 odds show Jones as the heavy favorite.
Jones vs. Miocic prediction & best bet for UFC 309
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Fight prediction: Jones to win (-625 via DraftKings) vs. Miocic ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Jones by KO/TKO/DQ (+135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jones vs. Miocic fight analysis
Don’t let his lengthy layoff and pudgy-looking heavyweight frame fool you. Jones will remain the UFC’s heavyweight king at Miocic’s expense.
Between his unmatched fight IQ, four-and-a-half-inch edge in reach (84.5 to 80), and shorter layoff, there’s little to suggest Jones won’t retain his crown.
Yes, Miocic is both a solid boxer and wrestler, but he’s on the wrong side of 40 and has been on the couch for over three years. Clashes of capable takedown artists rarely yield wrestling-heavy showings, and I expect that will remain the case during Saturday’s main event, with Jones and Miocic largely dueling from boxing or mid-range.
With his expert hand-fighting, well-timed elbows, and crafty distance control, Jones’ striking should pose more than a few problems for a more traditional boxer in Miocic.
If the pair somehow does make it to the mat, Jones will enjoy a decided advantage with his methodical top control and varied submission arsenal. Wherever the action goes, Jones will remind Miocic and at least a few fight fans to never bet against the greats.
Unfortunately, there’s little incentive to bet on a straight-up Jones win, as all of our best sports betting sites have made the defending champ a massive favorite just hours from fight night. The best value you’ll find on a Jones W is with DraftKings at -625.
Prediction: Jones to win (-625 via DraftKings) | Implied probability: 86.2%
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Jones vs. Miocic best bet
Jones’ last victory via KO/TKO came at Alexander Gustafsson’s expense nearly six years ago. But he still boasts 10 career stoppages via strikes to his name, and I like his chances of making it 11 on Saturday.
In addition to owning four more inches in reach than Miocic, Jones lands over four significant strikes per minute and defends a solid 64% of the opposition’s attempts, meaning he knows how to optimize his gargantuan reach.
Meanwhile, Miocic lands over four strikes per minute himself, but he’s suffered a KO/TKO in three of his four career defeats. His durability remains highly questionable at age 42 and after a three-plus-year layoff. I see Jones frustrating Miocic on his feet and retaining the crown in the most brutal fashion, whether it's with a well-timed elbow or some hellacious ground-and-pound.
Unlike the lines on a Jones win, a KO/TKO victory offers decent value across our best sportsbooks. FanDuel leads the pack here while listing a Jones knockout at +135 as of early Saturday.
Best bet: Jones by KO/TKO/DQ (+135 via FanDuel) | Implied probability: 42.4%
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Jones vs. Miocic odds
Odds via DraftKings as of Saturday.
| Jones | Method of victory | Miocic |
| -625 | Win outright | +455 |
| +120 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +700 |
| +450 | Win by unanimous decision | +2000 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
We may be licking our chops at the prospect of a Jones win through strikes. But the defending champ went the five-round distance three straight times before tapping Gane and eight times in total.
So if you’re banking on him showing Miocic ample respect in the Octagon, a unanimous decision win is certainly worth your attention at +450.
Jones vs. Miocic tale of the tape
| Jones | Miocic | |
| 37 | Age | 42 |
| 6’4” | Height | 6’4” |
| 237.6 lbs. | Weight | 248.6 lbs. |
| 84.5” | Reach | 80” |
| 27-1 (1 NC) | Record | 20-4 |
Jones vs. Miocic fight info: UFC 309
- When: Saturday, Nov. 16 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- How to watch: ESPN+, PPV
- Favorite: Jones (-625 via DraftKings)
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