UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 307 - Pereira vs. Rountree
Utah’s Delta Center hosts the UFC 307 event this Saturday, and we have you covered with our UFC predictions and odds.
The bill’s headliner will see Alex Pereira defend the UFC light heavyweight title against streaking challenger Khalil Rountree Jr. The reigning king stopped Jiri Prochazka to win the then-vacant strap just 11 months ago at UFC 295 and later defended it against Jamahal Hill before finishing Prochazka yet again this past June. Pereira’s challenger, Rountree, heads to Utah on a five-fight win streak, with a third-round TKO of Anthony Smith earning him his first shot at UFC gold last December.
In Saturday’s co-main event, Raquel Pennington puts her bantamweight crown on the line against former champion Julianna Pena. The 36-year-old took the throne with a lopsided decision against Mayra Bueno Silva this past January at UFC 297.
Meanwhile, Pena ends a 26-month layoff after losing the divisional title to Amanda Nunes at UFC 277.
UFC 307 predictions & picks
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Jose Aldo by KO/TKO or decision vs. Mario Bautista (+125 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐
- Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Under 1.5 Rounds (+106 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐
- Stephen Thompson ML vs. Joaquin Buckley (+190 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐
- Court McGee vs. Tim Means doesn’t go the distance (+124 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐
UFC 307 expert picks
Aldo by KO/TKO or decision vs. Bautista ⭐⭐⭐
At 38, Jose Aldo’s proverbial window is nearly closed, but there's still enough tread on the tires to get his hand raised in Salt Lake.
He’s won four of his last five in the Octagon, all against men who stood and traded punches with him, just as Mario Bautista will when the cage door shuts on Saturday.
Bautista may be the busier striker, but he’s yet to face one of Aldo’s caliber after mostly squaring off with middling bantamweights in the UFC.
Taking Aldo down remains a tall order. I expect the pair to remain standing for most of their contest, and with Aldo throwing everything into his combinations and counters without worrying about a fourth and fifth round, look for the Brazilian’s striking to prove a bridge too far for a game Bautista.
That said, while he still packs plenty of pep in his punches, Aldo hasn’t earned a stoppage win since the Obama administration, hence this double-chance bet.
Best odds: +125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 44.4%
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Pereira vs. Rountree Under 1.5 Rounds ⭐⭐⭐
In a clash of strikers with 18 career knockouts between them, Saturday’s closer shouldn’t see a third round.
Pereira has stopped nine of 11 pro conquests, with six in under a round-and-a-half. Meanwhile, Rountree has earned all but one of his nine stoppages within that same timeframe.
A typically fast starter, Rountree has been known to empty the tank within a round or two, occasionally to his detriment. As a career kickboxer who rarely forces a finish, Pereira is just the man to make him pay for another swift start.
Whether Rountree shocks us all with an early blitz or Pereira flatlines him with a nasty counter, these two light heavyweights will settle their dance in short order.
I analyzed this matchup further in my Pereira vs. Rountree prediction.
Best odds: +106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.5%
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Thompson ML vs. Buckley ⭐⭐⭐
In another bet on a seasoned veteran, I envision Stephen Thompson looking like his old self again come fight night.
Like Aldo, Thompson’s days as a contender are behind him, but he gets a favorable matchup in Joaquin Buckley this week. He may boast granite mitts, but Buckley only lands punches 36% of the time, and I don’t see him cutting off the cage while Thompson works from the outside.
Takedowns won’t be much easier to come by for Buckley, as Thompson defends 65% of the opposition’s attempts. Look for “Wonderboy” Thompson to dart in and out of range, frustrate Buckley with his lateral movement and combinations, and shuck off a few takedown attempts to get back in the win column.
Best odds: +190 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 38.5%
McGee vs. Means doesn’t go the distance ⭐⭐⭐
Had this matchup been booked a decade ago, I would have made the opposite pick. But Court McGee and Tim Means aren’t so durable anymore.
Yes, McGee has long been known as a decision machine, but he’s lost 10 of 15 and been sparked in two of his three straight defeats. Means hasn’t fared much better lately after dropping four of five and falling by stoppage in five of his last six losses.
While neither of these welterweights are above scoring the odd takedown, McGee and Means prefer to sling leather, landing a solid 4.60 and 5.08 significant strikes per minute, respectively. Should their work rates remain intact on Saturday, it won’t be a matter of if, but when one shopworn veteran rocks the other and spares the judges their participation in the night’s welterweight curtain-jerker.
Best odds: +124 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 44.6%
UFC expert picks made Saturday at 12:03 a.m. ET.
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