UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 310 - Pantoja vs. Asakura
The UFC is closing out 2024 with a bang, as Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweigh strap against Kai Asakura in UFC 310’s headliner at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.
Pantoja looks to retain his crown for the third time since he outdueled Brandon Moreno to claim it at UFC 290 in July 2023. He enters the promotion’s last pay-per-view event of the year with six straight wins.
Asakura makes his high-stakes UFC debut following a decorated stint in Rizin FF. He boasts a pro record of 21-4 with 16 stoppages and was last seen disposing of Juan Archuleta by second-round TKO at Rizin 45 last December.
Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry put their undefeated records on the line in the co-main event. The former has finished all 18 of his career conquests and most recently submitted Stephen Thompson at UFC 296 a year ago, while the latter brought his pro slate to 15-0 with a decision over Michael Page this past June at UFC 303.
UFC predictions & picks: Pantoja vs. Asakura
(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
- Asakura by KO/TKO or decision vs. Pantoja (+240 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Luque ML vs. Gorimbo (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- 3-bout parlay: Rakhmonov ML + Landwehr vs. Choi fight to go the distance: no + Brown vs. Battle Under 2.5 rounds (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Landwehr vs. Choi to end by KO/TKO/DQ (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UFC 310 expert picks
Asakura by KO/TKO or decision vs. Pantoja ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +240 via bet365 | Implied probability: 29.4%
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A title fight may be too much to ask of most promotional debutants, but Asakura should rise to the occasion.
As a longtime bantamweight with a three-inch edge in height and a two-inch advantage in reach, Asakura will claim the center, cut Pantoja off, and outmuscle the defending flyweight champ should he initiate clinches or shoot for takedowns against the fence.
Granted, Asakura has been outstruck in his three Rizin losses. Still, he’s this matchup’s superior technician on the feet, and his status as the taller fighter means the uppercut and knee up the middle will both be there as a hittable Pantoja angles for a way in. As Juan Archuleta, Yuki Motoya, and Hiromasa Ogikubo can all attest, Asakura’s timing on both those strikes is impeccable, and Pantoja will learn that the hard way should the Japanese challenger keep the action standing.
Asakura has earned 13 of 16 stoppages via strikes, while the defending champ has yet to fold inside the distance. Luckily, a double chance prop on the former offers excellent value just hours before UFC 310’s headliner.
Luque ML vs. Gorimbo ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +136 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.4%
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Yes, the welterweight fan favorite has dropped three of his last four, but he remains a terror on the feet when he’s the one pressuring and is stuffing over 60% of the opposition’s takedown attempts.
The latter stat is especially relevant to this clash, as Themba Gorimbo has scored multiple takedowns in three of his four straight wins. That said, Zimbabwe’s Gorimbo will have to swing his way into his wrestling, and Luque is just the man to make him pay for his looping rights and unrefined striking, landing over five significant strikes per minute to Gorimbo’s 3.11. In short, he may require the full 15, but Luque should remain upright long enough to find a home for his mitts and make Gorimbo rue his short-notice step up in competition.
3-bout parlay: Rakhmonov ML + Landwehr vs. Choi fight to go the distance: no + Brown vs. Battle Under 2.5 rounds (+300)⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +300 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 25.0%
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We’re going with a fun parlay in back-to-back UFC events, and Rakhmonov leads this one on the strength of his edge in reach (three inches) and grappling over Garry. Simply put, Rakhmonov is violence personified, and he’s tasked with a gifted striker, but one who often fails to push his advantages. Look for the Kazakh native to keep Garry on the back foot, score some takedowns, and have a grand old time on the mat at his expense.
Next, we have a featherweight matchup between bruisers Nate Landwehr and Doo-Ho Choi, with the former owning 11 wins and two of three UFC losses via stoppage, while the latter has earned 12 of 15 career Ws via strikes.
Lastly, we’re going with the Under on 2.5 rounds for a welterweight clash between Randy Brown, who boasts a dozen career stoppages, and Bryan Battle, a swift starter who’s scored nine of 11 pro wins before seeing a third stanza.
Landwehr vs. Choi to end by KO/TKO/DQ ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.5%
Saturday’s main card opens with a banger, as Landwehr and Choi will sling leather for three rounds or less - likely less.
Not only do the pair boast over 20 wins by KO/TKO between them, they also tend to lose big, as both have folded inside the distance on several occasions. Furthermore, Landwehr lands an absurd 6.25 significant strikes per minute and Choi a solid 4.41, so expect these two to chuck heaps of haymakers from the opening bell.
As the old cliche goes, styles make fights, and there’s little to suggest this featherweight pair won’t do it justice and swing with the cruelest of intentions until one man is left counting the lights in T-Mobile Arena.
UFC expert picks made Saturday at 12:03 a.m. ET.
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