Farmers Insurance Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Scoring to Prove More Difficult at Torrey Pines

Due to the NFL's Conference Championships on Sunday, the PGA Tour is running on a Wednesday-Saturday schedule for this week's Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course near San Diego, CA. Read on for our look at the best odds, course profile, key stats to know, and top golf picks for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

Here we go again.

Jon Rahm is, as they say, "on one." The former world No. 1 is back up to No. 3 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) after winning each of his first two events of 2023. Those came after winning his final two DP World Tour events of 2022. As such, Rahm is a prohibitive betting favorite across our best sportsbooks.

Check out our Farmers Insurance expert picks and our Farmers Insurance Open power rankings!

But at SportsbookReview.com, we look for the value plays. We can't rightfully suggest an outright winner at odds ranging from +390 to +450 as a very poor long-term strategy. The field remains strong with 10 of the top 25 golfers in the OWGR in attendance, so we'll look elsewhere.

Check out below for our top picks for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open (odds via our best sportsbooks).

Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Farmers Insurance Open Odds Analysis

The odds to win the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open have become more standardized among our best sportsbooks through the week. Rahm's odds to win, once as low as +350 via Caesars and +390 via FanDuel, are now unionized as +450 across the board.

Those nearest Rahm have seen the most fluctuation in their odds to win this week. Schauffele's odds have been suppressed considerably, while the odds for Justin Thomas to win have been raised at most shops.

With a universal implied win probability of 18.18% we just can't be betting on Rahm in the 156-man field, despite his wildly impressive form. Wait for some of the tournament prop markets later in the week or consider parlaying Rahm to win the Farmers Insurance Open with other futures wagers, such as the Masters, WM Phoenix Open, The Players Championship, or the Super Bowl.

Farmers Insurance Open Picks

• Tony Finau (+1200 via BetMGM)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 via PointsBet)
• Si Woo Kim (+4500 via PointsBet)

Torrey Pines (South) Course Profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,765 yards 
Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua

The Farmers Insurance Open will again be split between Torrey Pines' North and South courses. Everyone in the field will play both courses in their first and second rounds. After the 36-hole cut, the top 65 golfers (and ties) will play the South course for both Friday and Saturday's rounds. The North course is the considerably easier of the two venues, so all golfers need to be sure to capitalize on the scoring opportunities during those 18 holes.

The South course is relatively flat and contains just one water hazard. Length and sand bunkers are the course's best defense against low scores. Luke List won in a playoff over Will Zalatoris with a 72-hole score of minus-15 last year. Twenty-four golfers finished 10-under par or better, with 11 holes having a scoring average below par for the tournament.

The most common par-4 range is 450 to 505 yards, with seven such holes; just three of those scored below par last year. All four of the par 5s on the South course scored under par, with 25 eagles carded between them. They range from 564 to 621 yards. Two of the four par 3s, which range from 177 to 227 yards, scored below par in 2022.

Farmers Insurance Open Key Stats

• Strokes gained: tee-to-green
• SG: off-the-tee
• Proximity from 200-plus yards
• Scrambling percentage
• Par-5 scoring
• Bogey avoidance

The South course also possesses narrow fairways to help deter some of the field's longer hitters from using driver off of every tee. As such, our two main stats for the week are strokes gained: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee. The list of winners hasn't necessarily favored bombers and it's still possible to maneuver one's way through this course by playing from the fairways.

That said, the long irons are highly important with proximity from 200-plus yards being the key range. Scoring needs to be done on the par 5s. Avoiding trouble and bogeys takes precedence over creating additional scoring opportunities.

Who Will Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

Tony Finau (+1200 via BetMGM)

Finau missed the cut at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines as well as the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open, but he still ranks ninth in this field with 1.52 true strokes gained on the field per round across his 24 career rounds on the South course. Prior to the 2021 U.S. Open, he had finishes of T-13, T-6, and T-2 in his last three appearances. Four of his five PGA Tour wins have come since that U.S. Open.

There's not much difference in Finau's odds across our best sportsbooks but every little bit counts this week. As the golfer with the second-best odds to win outright, his odds are nearly three times as high as Rahm's. We can capitalize on the suppressed odds for the tournament favorite by backing Finau, and his best price comes via BetMGM.

I initially invested in the opening line of +1400 available via BetMGM and greatly preferred that price, but the +1200 is still stomachable given the other movement on the board. I feel there's a chance this number creeps back up closer to Wednesday morning's first tee times.

Finau tied for 16th last week at The American Express with a very strong putting and iron performance. He's gaining 2.17 strokes per round from tee-to-green across his last 10 measured rounds, and he ranks no worse than T-53 for the 2022-23 PGA Tour season in all of our key stats for this week.

Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 via PointsBet)

One beneficiary of the strong field and the absurdly low odds on Rahm is the 2021 Masters champion. Matsuyama, who enters the week at No. 20 in the world ranking, is the ninth-best golfer in the field by the measure of the OWGR. However, he shares just the 12th-best odds to win the Farmers Insurance Open at PointsBet. That's excellent value for a brand-name golfer. Caesars is offering market-low odds of +2800.

Matsuyama also has a quality course history at Torrey Pines. Over 27 career rounds on the South course, he has averaged 1.48 true strokes gained per round on the field. That includes a top finish of T-3 in the 2019 FIO.

Back Matsuyama at odds of +3000 or higher.

Si Woo Kim (+4500 via PointsBet)

Kim followed up his victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii with a T-22 finish last week at PGA West. He had an excellent week on the greens, and that bodes well with the Poa Annua blend in play once again as we continue the West Coast swing.

Kim's odds are as low as +3300 via FanDuel and Caesars, so we're once again getting our best number via PointsBet. Though this field is much stronger than the one that played the second event in Hawaii, I have no issue backing the recent winner at an overly elevated price point.

I saw Monday's opening odds of +4000 as a more accurate number for Kim but anticipated the potential for a higher number to come through the week. That has come early via PointsBet, which already had the best odds in the market. I'd re-invest at the new price point.

Farmers Insurance Open Recent Winners

How to watch the Farmers Insurance Open

The 2023 Farmers Insurance Open will be broadcasted on Golf Channel Wednesday to Friday and the early portion of Saturday's final round. CBS will cover the later portion of Friday and Saturday's rounds.

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five Bet Credits of Up to $100 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review

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