Miami Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions 2024: Can Anyone Beat Max Verstappen?

Formula 1 heads to the United States for the first time in 2024, and our Miami Grand Prix picks and predictions are based on the F1 odds from our best F1 betting sites.

The United States hosts its first of three F1 races in 2024 on Sunday at the Miami International Autodrome in Florida, where Max Verstappen has taken the checkered flag at the Miami Grand Prix in each of the last two years. Verstappen, the runaway favorite by the latest F1 championship odds, has won all but one of the five races this season.

Red Bull has asserted its dominance on the track all year, and Miami doesn't appear to be any different with Verstappen securing the top spot in practice to start the weekend.

While that doesn’t guarantee Verstappen's third win in a row at the Miami International Autodrome, early signs are ominous for the rest of the field after he secured pole position for today's race, which begins at 4 p.m. ET.

Here are our 2024 Miami Grand Prix picks and predictions based on the F1 odds for Miami International Autodrome (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). You can also dive into the Monaco Grand Prix odds and Las Vegas Grand Prix odds in advance of those anticipated races. 

Miami Grand Prix picks

• Favorite: Max Verstappen (-550 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Long shot: Carlos Sainz (+2200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: McLaren Fastest Pit Stop (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Miami Grand Prix odds 2024

(Odds as of Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET)

Miami Grand Prix predictions

Favorite: Max Verstappen (-550 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Max Verstappen won four of five races this season and has occupied the podium's top step in 46 of the last 71 races going back to the 2021 season. In that span, he has missed a top-three finish just 11 times. The Dutch speedster etched his name in the history of the sport, and he hasn’t even reached his prime. 

With that in mind, there's so much juice on him as a favorite you'll have to put a significant amount down to yield a decent return. And there is a chance, no matter how slight, that he could run into problems as he did in Australia, where he finished 19th after suffering brake issues three laps into the race. 

However, Verstappen winning is always the most likely outcome, given the fact that he is the only driver to win this race. He has also secured pole position. A winning $100 bet yields a profit of $18.18 and the odds imply a probability of an astounding 84.62%.

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Long shot: Carlos Sainz (+2200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Carlos Sainz is the only driver besides Verstappen to win a race this season. The Spaniard drove his Ferrari to a podium finish in three of his four races this season. His victory in Australia came after he recovered from an appendectomy. Last season, Sainz was the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race.

Sainz finished on the podium in Miami in 2022. Last year, he started third but fell back to finish in fifth. He will start on the grid in fifth. At +2200, FanDuel offers the best odd across our best sports betting sites. A winning $10 wager will pay a $220 profit. The +2200 odds imply a winning probability of 4.35%. 

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Prop: McLaren fastest pit stop (+350 via DraftKings)⭐⭐⭐⭐

Red Bull owns nine of the season's 10 fastest pit stops. The only other team in the top 10 is Ferrari, which occupies the last spot. Our best sports betting apps have set Red Bull’s line at -175. If you feel comfortable taking this, it is never a bad bet, seeing as it has cashed in every race except Bahrain. 

Taking McLaren as a pivot is a solid option if you want to take a chance on a different outcome. Over the last two races, Lando Norris has enjoyed the third-fastest pit stop. His McLaren was the next quickest behind both Red Bulls. If the Red Bull team ran into any issues, McLaren would have been in line to take the top spot.

At +350, DraftKings offers the best value. It has an implied probability of 22.22% and pays a profit of $35 on a winning $10 bet.  

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Previous Miami Grand Prix winners

Miami Grand Prix info

Date: Sunday, May 5, 4 p.m. ET 
Location: Miami International Autodrome, Miami, Fla.
How to watch: ABC
Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Miami Grand Prix picks made Friday at 6 p.m. ET

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