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Cook Out 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Expect Cream to Rise to the Top at Richmond

Henry John

Last Updated: July 30, 2023 1:58 PM EDT • 4 min 50 sec read.

Kevin Harvick features in our Cook Out 400 picks.
Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Rheem Ford, drives during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway on July 29, 2023 in Richmond, Virginia. Sean Gardner/Getty Images/AFP

Kevin Harvick looks to win the Cook Out 400 for a second consecutive year. Find out where we stand in our Cook Out 400 picks and predictions based on the best available odds from our best sports betting sites.

After a dramatic race at Pocono last weekend, it’s hard telling what may unfold when the NASCAR Cup Series takes to Richmond Raceway on Sunday afternoon. The Cook Out 400 marks the series’ second and final trip to Richmond this season.

Kyle Larson was the winner in this year’s spring race here and certainly figures to be motivated after his incident with Denny Hamlin last week. Kevin Harvick won this race a year ago which means that neither of the two most recent Richmond winners were driving a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. This is surprising given JGR’s dominance here in the past.

Richmond is the only track on the NASCAR circuit that is 0.75 miles in length. It is a D-shaped oval with minimal banking. Cream typically rises to the top here in terms of driver talent and team strengths. Drivers who excel on flatter configurations tend to gain the upper hand, making the recent race at New Hampshire a viable data point for bettors to consider.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Cook Out 400 picks for Sunday’s action at Richmond Raceway (odds via PointsBet and SuperBook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Cook Out 400 picks

  • Outright winner: Kevin Harvick (+650 via PointsBet) ⭐
  • Group B Matchup: Chase Elliott (+355 via SuperBook) vs. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and William Byron ⭐⭐
  • Group C matchup: Tyler Reddick (+220 via SuperBook) vs. Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐

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Cook Out 400 odds

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Martin Truex Jr.+400+400+400+400+400
Denny Hamlin+550+550+500+500+525
Kevin Harvick+550+550+600+550+650 🔥
Kyle Busch+750+750+900 🔥+600 ❄️+800
Kyle Larson+800+800+800+700+650 ❄️
William Byron+900+900+600 ❄️+850+750
Chase Elliott+1600 🔥+1600+1000 ❄️+1500+1200
Tyler Reddick+1600+1600+1200 ❄️+1400+1700 🔥
Christopher Bell+1800 🔥+1600+1000 ❄️+1200OFF
Joey Logano+2200+2200+1600+2000+1300 ❄️

Cook Out 400 predictions

Outright winner: Kevin Harvick (+650 via PointsBet) ⭐

Surely Harvick is going to win a race in this, the final season of a storybook NASCAR Cup Series career, right? Although he isn’t the betting favorite for Sunday’s Cook Out 400, he certainly figures to be in contention to repeat as the winner of this race.

As previously mentioned, Richmond Raceway is a track with very little banking. Harvick has excelled in this discipline over the years. He has strong statistics on this particular track that expand well beyond last year’s victory. 

Spanning the last 10 races here, Harvick has six top-5s and only one finish worse than eighth. His average finish of 6.6 over that stretch ranks third behind only Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin. He also boasts an average driver rating of 105.9 in the last six races, the fourth-best of any Cup Series competitor.

Harvick has gone to victory lane at Richmond four different times during his Cup Series career. He has been running well of late, finishing fourth in each of the last two weeks. A breakthrough win feels inevitable. 

From an odds standpoint, bettors should look to back “The Closer” at PointsBet. The shop’s +650 price stands alone as the best value in the market among our preferred sportsbooks.

Group B Matchup: Chase Elliott (+355 via SuperBook) vs. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and William Byron ⭐⭐

It has been a frustrating season for Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott. Although he is now long since removed from a snowboarding injury that kept him out of the car for six weeks, he has yet to obtain many strong results. The last three weeks have seen him place 13th, 12th and 10th. These finishes are hardly up to the lofty standards of Elliott and HMS. 

Furthermore, Elliott has been running considerably worse than his three Group B counterparts. Recent form is no doubt a key reason for why he is priced as a +355 long shot to win this four-man horse race. Although his 2023 season thus far has been far from inspiring, it’s hard to pass up a desperate driver of Elliott’s caliber at that price point.

When it comes to historical stats at Richmond, Elliott has been noticeably consistent. He has five top-5s in his last nine starts and did not finish worse than 15th in any of those races. Three of those top-5s came in the five most recent starts including a fifth-place run in this race last year.

Of course, cashing this ticket will hardly be easy. Elliott must beat out Harvick (+185), the defending Cook Out 400 race winner and group favorite who we just hyped up above. He also must outrun Kyle Busch (+295) who has terrific stats here and William Byron (+295) who has comparable Hendrick Motorsports equipment and four wins already this season.

While the odds may be stacked against Elliott, a strong qualifying run has him set to start fourth on Sunday’s grid. The fact that he is in a must-win situation as far as his playoff hopes are concerned could be a positive as he will be forced to go for broke on a weekly basis moving forward. 

Group C matchup: Tyler Reddick (+220 via SuperBook) vs. Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney ⭐⭐⭐

We are staying in the groups for our final selection this week. SuperBook has Tyler Reddick priced as the favorite in his Group C matchup. Driving the No. 45 Toyota for the JGR-affiliated 23XI Racing, it seems reasonable to expect that he will run well on Sunday. Reddick already has a leg-up after capturing the pole position in Saturday’s qualifying.

While he will have prime starting position for the race, the main concern with betting on Reddick is his lack of historical success at Richmond. In six previous Cup Series starts here, he has never finished better than 11th and finished outside of the top-15 on three occasions. 

Despite his previous struggles here, Reddick notably placed sixth two weeks ago at New Hampshire, a fairly comparable low-banked track. Fortunately, only one of the three other drivers in Group C has a notably better history of running here. That would be Brad Keselowski (+290). However, he hasn’t finished better than 10th since winning outright in 2020.

As for Ross Chastain (+270) and Ryan Blaney (+320), success at Richmond has been minimal. The former finished fourth here back in the spring, but Trackhouse Racing has been struggling for the better part of the summer stretch. Chastain will start 19th on Sunday and Blaney will be even further back after a poor qualifying run. He has only three top-10s in his last 10 starts here with a highwater mark of seventh.

By virtue of earning the pole position, it’s easy to see why Reddick became the betting favorite to win this group. With Keselowski appearing to be his only formidable challenger, the +220 price holds undeniable value.

Cook Out 400 race info

  • Date: Sunday, July 30, 3 p.m. ET
  • Location: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, VA
  • TV: USA Network
  • Defending Winner: Kevin Harvick

Cook Out 400 picks made 7/29/23 at 10 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.