2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds: Larson the New Favorite Over Hamlin, Byron
Kyle Larson has emerged as the consensus favorite by the latest NASCAR Cup Series championship odds through the first 12 races of the 2024 season.
Only three drivers have won multiple races through the first three months of the 2024 NASCAR season. Fittingly, our best sports betting sites are showing those three locked in a tight race atop the Cup Series odds after the closest finish ever last weekend at Kansas Speedway.
Kyle Larson is back in the metaphorical driver's seat after winning the AdventHealth 400 by 0.001 seconds - the closest finish in the 76-year history of the Cup Series. It marked his second win of the year after dominating at Las Vegas in early March, and he's been drawing the attention of our best sportsbooks.
The veteran is priced just ahead of William Byron and Denny Hamlin, the only drivers with three wins in 2024. All three are among the favorites to win Sunday's Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway, which is the last race before the NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway on May 19.
Here is our updated look at the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds (via the best sports betting apps) and our top picks among the field.
NASCAR Cup Series championship odds 2024
(Odds updated May 9)
| Driver | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 | +450 🔥 | +350 ❄️ | +375 | +400 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 | +500 | +425 | +400 ❄️ | +500 |
| William Byron | +500 | +500 | +525 🔥 | +450 ❄️ | +500 |
| Christopher Bell | +750 | +700 ❄️ | +800 | +900 🔥 | +800 |
| Chase Elliott | +900 | +1000 🔥 | +700 ❄️ | +750 | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +900 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | +900 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | +1200 | +1400 🔥 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1400 | +1400 | +1500 🔥 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1600 | +1600 | +2000 🔥 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1600 | +1600 | +2000 🔥 | +1800 | +1600 |
| Joey Logano | +1600 | +1600 | +2000 | +2200 🔥 | +1600 |
Favorites to win NASCAR Cup Series Championship
Kyle Larson (+450 via FanDuel)
After entering 2024 as the preseason co-favorite with Byron, it took Larson some time to reclaim that top spot while recording just one win through his first 11 races. Then came Sunday's effort at Kansas Speedway, where Larson took advantage of a late caution to zoom past Hamlin and beat Chris Buescher to the finish line in the closest finish in NASCAR history:
That gave Larson his second win of the year, and the 2021 Cup Series champion currently leads all drivers in points (467), laps led (633), and top-fives (six). He's also the favorite to win Sunday's race at Darlington Raceway, where he won last fall and has notched six top-three finishes in his last 10 tries.
If you weren't convinced before his win at Kansas, it's hard to stomach a worse price now, though Larson remains arguably the best driver in the field every time he hits the track. It's always risky betting the favorite in the playoff era, but nobody deserves these short odds more than the No. 5.
Best odds: +450 via FanDuel
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Denny Hamlin (+500 via bet365)
It looked like Hamlin might pick up his fourth win in eight weeks before a late caution derailed the Kansas front-runner from finishing the job. Still, nobody is hotter than the 43-year-old veteran heading into this weekend's race at Darlington.
With three victories under his belt, Hamlin is driving as aggressively as ever in recent weeks. It's paid off with wins at Bristol, Richmond, and Dover. At this point in the season, a DNF doesn't hurt Hamlin nearly as much as a win helps him, and that's a scary proposition for the rest of the field.
With Hamlin's car, crew, and confidence operating in full synergy, this could finally be the year that the No. 11 wins that elusive Cup Series championship.
Best odds: +500 via bet365
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William Byron (+525 via BetMGM)
Byron is getting the longest odds of the top three drivers, but it's hard not to consider him a co-favorite in this field with three checkered flags to his name through 12 weeks.
Perhaps the most impressive thing about the 26-year-old's start is his versatility and consistency. He's already won on a short track (Martinsville), a superspeedway (Daytona), and even a road course (Circuit of the Americas), and his seven top-10 finishes are tied for the most in the field - more than Larson (six) or Hamlin (five).
Byron made the Championship 4 in 2023 and was one of two drivers to lead at least 1,000 laps across the entire season (Larson was the other). It's hard to imagine that he won't make another deep run in this year's playoffs, and it feels like these odds could look like a relative bargain in hindsight.
Best odds: +525 via BetMGM
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Ty Gibbs (+2000 via BetMGM)
If you've been following our NASCAR analysis all season, you know how we feel about Gibbs, whom we've been spotlighting ever since his odds were 28/1 way back in February.
It seems unlikely we'll ever get that price again, but the 21-year-old is catching 20/1 odds for the first time in a while after his worst finish of the season (32nd) at Kansas. He still ranks fourth in laps led (201) and fifth in top-10 results (six) and has qualified well in recent weeks despite uninspiring results on race day.
The 2023 Rookie of the Year is too talented to remain in a slump for much longer, and we saw him come on late in the year in 2023. I'd highly recommend jumping on these 20/1 odds before it all clicks for the Joe Gibbs Racing prodigy.
Best odds: +2000 via BetMGM
2024 NASCAR schedule and winners
| Date | Race | Location | Winner (open) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, Feb. 3 | Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum | Denny Hamlin (+1100) |
| Monday, Feb. 19 | Daytona 500 | Daytona International Speedway | William Byron (+1400) |
| Sunday, Feb. 25 | Ambetter Health 400 | Atlanta Motor Speedway | Daniel Suarez (+3000) |
| Sunday, March 3 | Pennzoil 400 | Las Vegas Motor Speedway | Kyle Larson (+400) |
| Sunday, March 10 | Shriners Children's 500 | Phoenix Raceway | Christopher Bell (+1000) |
| Sunday, March 17 | Food City 500 | Bristol Motor Speedway | Denny Hamlin (+500) |
| Sunday, March 24 | EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix | Circuit of the Americas | William Byron (+1000) |
| Sunday, March 31 | Toyota Owners 400 | Richmond Raceway | Denny Hamlin (+425) |
| Sunday, April 7 | Cook Out 400 | Martinsville Speedway | William Byron (+1200) |
| Sunday, April 14 | AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 | Texas Motor Speedway | Chase Elliott (+1400) |
| Sunday, April 21 | GEICO 500 | Talladega Superspeedway | Tyler Reddick (+2200) |
| Sunday, April 28 | Würth 400 | Dover Motor Speedway | Denny Hamlin (+750) |
| Sunday, May 5 | AdventHealth 400 | Kansas Speedway | Kyle Larson (+380) |
| Sunday, May 12 | Goodyear 400 | Darlington Raceway | TBD |
| Sunday, May 19 | NASCAR All-Star Race | North Wilkesboro Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, May 26 | Coca-Cola 600 | Charlotte Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, June 2 | Enjoy Illinois 300 | World Wide Technology Raceway | TBD |
| Sunday, June 9 | Toyota / Save Mart 350 | Sonoma Raceway | TBD |
| Sunday, June 16 | Iowa Corn 350 | Iowa Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, June 23 | NASCAR Cup Series Race at New Hampshire | New Hampshire Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, June 30 | Ally 400 | Nashville Superspeedway | TBD |
| Sunday, July 7 | Grant Park 165 | Chicago Street Course | TBD |
| Sunday, July 14 | NASCAR CUP Series Race at Pocono | Pocono Raceway | TBD |
| Sunday, July 21 | Brickyard 400 | Indianapolis Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Aug. 11 | Cook Out 400 | Richmond Raceway | TBD |
| Sunday, Aug. 18 | FireKeepers Casino 400 | Michigan International Speedway | TBD |
| Saturday, Aug. 24 | Coke Zero Sugar 400 | Daytona International Spedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 1 | Cook Out Southern 500 | Darlington Raceway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 8 | Quaker State 400* | Atlanta Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 15 | Go Bowling at The Glen* | Watkins Glen International | TBD |
| Saturday, Sept. 21 | Bass Pro Shops Night Race* | Bristol Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Sept. 29 | Hollywood Casino 400* | Kansas Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 6 | YellaWood 500* | Talladega Superspeedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 13 | Bank of America ROVAL 400* | Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 20 | South Point 400* | Las Vegas Motor Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Oct. 27 | NASCAR Cup Series Race at Homestead-Miami* | Homestead-Miami Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Nov. 3 | XFINITY 500* | Martinsville Speedway | TBD |
| Sunday, Nov. 10 | NASCAR Cup Series Championship* | Phoenix Raceway | TBD |
* NASCAR Cup Series Championship playoff race
NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds over time
May 9: At this point in the season, we don't see much movement (if any) across our best live betting sites unless a driver just won a race. That was recently the case for Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick, who experienced notable bumps after winning at Texas and Talladega, respectively.
The same happened this week for Larson, who was in the mix with Hamlin and Byron but overtook those two as the consensus favorite across our books with the best sportsbook promos. We also saw some dark-horse candidates such as Ross Chastain and Ty Gibbs fall back after tough results at Kansas, though each are worth a look at their new price.
Martin Truex Jr. still owns the shortest odds of any driver without a win. He's slotted just ahead of 2023 champion Ryan Blaney, who's still seeking his first checkered flag of the season to snap a winless streak for Ford drivers in 2024.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship opening odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +550 |
| William Byron | +550 |
| Ryan Blaney | +750 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 |
| Chase Elliott | +850 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1000 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1400 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1400 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 |
| Chris Buescher | +2000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2800 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3000 |
| Alex Bowman | +3500 |
| Josh Berry | +6000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +7000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +7000 |
Past NASCAR Cup Series Championship winners
| Year | Driver | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ryan Blaney | +1000 |
| 2022 | Joey Logano | +1400 |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson | +1100 |
| 2020 | Chase Elliott | +1200 |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch | +600 |
| 2018 | Joey Logano | +800 |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. | +800 |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson | +700 |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick | +2000 |
| 2013 | Jimmie Johnson | +350 |
How to bet on the NASCAR Cup Series Championship
While there is no dominant driver in the NASCAR field as there once was, preseason favorites Kyle Larson and William Byron are maintaining their spot near the top and are among the favorites in just about every race. So is Hamlin, who has logged three wins already to join the previous two as the only drivers with multiple wins thus far.
Betting on any of those drivers isn't a bad way to invest in the season, with all three looking likely to be among the final cars in the playoff field. If you're looking for a way to fade those leaders, you might find better value on a race-to-race basis - like when Daniel Suarez won in Atlanta with odds as high as 45/1.
That said, NASCAR's playoff format adds volatility to the overall field, so we recommend picking off relative values like Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Ty Gibbs, who all have the makeup and team to compete, and they offer a larger payoff than the top three.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship FAQs
Who is the NASCAR Cup Series Championship favorite?
Kyle Larson is the consensus favorite to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship with odds as high as +450. According to our odds converter, that carries an implied probability of 18.18% that he'll claim the second championship of his career after winning in 2021.
Who won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?
Ryan Blaney won the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, outlasting Kyle Larson and William Byron in the final race of the season at Phoenix Raceway.
When will the NASCAR Cup Series Championship be decided?
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship will be decided on Nov. 10, when the final four drivers compete at Phoenix Raceway.
Where will the NASCAR Cup Series Championship take place?
For the fifth straight year, the NASCAR Cup Series Championship will take place at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, Arizona, as the conclusion of the 16-driver playoff.
When is the next NASCAR race?
The next race in the NASCAR Cup Series is the Goodyear 400, which is scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) at Darlington Raceway in Darlington, S.C.
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