PSG vs. Dortmund Prediction, Pick & UCL Odds: Mbappe Poaches in Paris
Borussia Dortmund holds a razor-thin 1-0 advantage as they face PSG on Tuesday at Parc des Princes in the second leg of their Champions League semifinal, and here's our expert PSG-Dortmund prediction based on the best Champions League odds.
PSG is gearing up to settle the score after a 1-0 defeat to Dortmund last week in Germany during the opening semifinal leg. PSG stands as the clear favorite to do just that, according to our Champions League odds. Dortmund's challenges away from home in European competitions are evident, with three losses out of five away matches, notably a 2-0 defeat to PSG in the Group F opener.
The club's difficulties as the visitor persist in the Champions League knockout stages, including just one victory during Dortmund's last 11 matches, with nine losses and one draw. Meanwhile, PSG are -200 favorites to win, according to our best sports betting sites, with the club securing three out of five wins at Parc de Princes, despite a 3-2 loss to Barcelona in the opening leg of the quarterfinals. Kickoff in Paris is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET.
To accompany our Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich prediction, here is our best PSG vs. Dortmund prediction and soccer picks (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
PSG vs. Dortmund odds
Odds via bet365 as of May 6
PSG vs. Dortmund prediction
Kylian Mbappe anytime goal ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The most obvious and best bet for this match is for Mbappe to hit the scoresheet at least once. The Frenchman has eight goals in 11 matches, level with Harry Kane atop the competition's goalscoring chart. He was unfortunate not to score in the opening leg, hitting the woodwork despite being neutralized for the most part by a stubborn and well-organized Dortmund defense.
Dortmund's defense at Signal Iduna Park is far more watertight than on the road. Dortmund conceded two goals in Paris in the group stage with Mbappe getting in on the scoring act. He's scored a goal in four of PSG's five home matches in the competition.
He failed to score at home against Barcelona in the opening leg of the quarterfinal but followed that goose egg with a brace in the return leg. Mbappe takes all PSG's penalties, too, which could prove decisive for this prop. Three of his eight goals have come from the spot, including two at Parc des Princes.
Plus, Mbappe is almost assuredly leaving PSG at the end of the season after spending seven years in the French capital, making Tuesday his last home Champions League match with the Parisians. I can't think of a more Mbappe-like ending than to fill the old onion bag one last time in front of his adorning PSG supporters.
Best odds: -138 via bet365
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PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund odds analysis
Of our best sports betting apps, bet365 offers the best value for Mbappe to score, and it's not even close. Locking in the wager as soon as possible was wise before the odds tightened to align with the other sportsbooks. As of Sunday morning, BetMGM offered -182, Caesars -200, and FanDuel -165.
At -138, a $10 winning bet would pay a profit of $7.25. The -138 odds come with an implied probability of 57.98%.
PSG vs. Dortmund game info
- Date: Tuesday, May 7 at 3 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS, Paramount+, DAZN (Canada)
- Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France
- Weather: 57 degrees, clear
- Favorite: PSG (-200 via bet365)
PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction made Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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